Eredivisie
Ajax - FC Volendam
01/24/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.9
1.1
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
53%
Draw
31%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
28%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
47%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Ajax's strong home record (1.89 goals per game) meets Volendam's catastrophic away defense (4.0 goals conceded per game)
- Ajax's unbeaten run (WDWDW) contrasts sharply with Volendam's poor form (LLLLW)
- Both teams are weakened by injuries to key attackers (Weghorst/Berghuis for Ajax, Veerman/Descotte for Volendam), which could make the game closer than expected
Risk Factors
- Ajax's offensive absences could blunt their attack more than expected, giving Volendam a chance to stay in the game
- The last head-to-head match was a surprising 1-1 draw, showing that Volendam can occasionally hold their own
- Ajax's defense is not impenetrable, conceding an average of 1.37 goals per game
Overview
Ajax (3rd place, 34 points) hosts FC Volendam (15th place, 17 points) at the Johan Cruijff Arena. The Eredivisie match will take place on January 24, 2026, at 4:30 PM. There is a significant 17-point gap between the two teams in the table, making Ajax the clear favorite.
Form
Ajax form: WDWDW
The team is unbeaten in 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws
FC Volendam form: LLLLW
The visitors have managed only 1 win from their last 5 games, suffering 4 defeats
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Ajax has a strong attack with a season average of 1.95 goals per game, while FC Volendam averages 1.11
Defensively, Ajax concedes an average of 1.37 goals, compared to Volendam's 1.74
The difference in away games is particularly stark: Volendam has scored only 5 goals in 5 matches but conceded 20 (an average of 4.0 per game)
Ajax is much more stable at home, conceding only 9 goals in 9 home games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax dominated with 3 wins, while 2 games ended in a draw
FC Volendam did not win any of these encounters
The goal difference is 12:5 in favor of Ajax
The last meeting ended in a 1-1 draw
Key Players
Mika Godts is the key player in Ajax's attack with 8 season goals and 7 assists
Oscar Gloukh also contributes significantly with 5 goals and 5 assists
For FC Volendam, Brandley Kuwas stands out with 3 season goals and 2 assists
Defender Mawouna Amevor has also been a goal threat recently, scoring once in his last five games
Goalkeepers
In goal for Ajax is Vitezslav Jaros, who has kept 4 clean sheets this season
His counterpart, Kayne van Oevelen of FC Volendam, has managed this once so far this season
Influences
Ajax's home advantage is statistically significant, especially on natural grass, where they have won 5 out of 10 games
FC Volendam has not yet won an away game on natural grass (1 draw, 7 losses)
The Johan Cruijff Arena has an average of 2.6 goals per game, suggesting an entertaining match
Volendam's disastrous away record (5:20 goals in 5 games) is a decisive factor