Eredivisie
FC Twente - Excelsior
01/24/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.3
3.6
1.3
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
25%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
78%
Over 3.5
52%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
64%
No
36%
Key Factors
- Defensive Mismatch: Excelsior's extremely weak away defense (2.56 goals conceded per game) meets a solid Twente attack
- Difference in Form: Twente is unbeaten in five games (2 wins, 3 draws), while Excelsior has only managed one win in the same period
- Key Absences for Twente: The home team is missing suspended defender Bart van Rooij and forward Sam Lammers, which could impact their defensive and offensive strength
Risk Factors
- Contradictory Venue Stats: Recent games at De Grolsch Veste have been low-scoring with an average of 2.0 goals, which contradicts the goal forecast for this match
- Excelsior's Improved Attack: According to advanced stats, Excelsior is currently scoring more than their season average, indicating an offensive improvement
- Impact of Twente's Absences: The absence of key players van Rooij and Lammers could disrupt Twente's structure more than anticipated
Overview
FC Twente, in 6th place in the table with 29 points, hosts Excelsior, who are in 14th place with 21 points
The Eredivisie match will take place on January 24, 2026, at 9:00 PM at the De Grolsch Veste stadium
FC Twente aims to stay in touch with the European spots, while Excelsior is gathering crucial points against relegation
Form
FC Twente: DWDDW - 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses
The home team is unbeaten in their last five games
Excelsior: LWLDD - 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses
The visitors' form is inconsistent, with only one win from their last five matches
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
FC Twente's attack scores an average of 1.53 goals per game, while Excelsior averages 1.05
Defensively, Twente is more stable, conceding an average of 1.16 goals compared to Excelsior's 1.84
Excelsior's defense is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.56 goals per game
For both teams, 12 out of 19 league games have seen both teams score
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, FC Twente has a positive record
FC Twente won 3 matches, Excelsior 1, and 1 match ended in a draw
The goal difference is 11:3 in favor of FC Twente
However, Excelsior won the most recent encounter 1-0
Key Players
Ricky van Wolfswinkel is FC Twente's top scorer with 7 goals this season
Daan Rots is showing rising form and has already scored 5 goals and provided 2 assists this season
Noah Naujoks is the most dangerous player for Excelsior with 6 goals
Irakli Yegoian has contributed 3 goals and 2 assists for Excelsior so far
Goalkeepers
FC Twente's Lars Unnerstall has kept 4 clean sheets this season
Excelsior's Stijn van Gassel has kept his goal clean in 3 matches and boasts a high average season rating of 7.28
Influences
Excelsior has a very poor away record on natural grass, with 5 losses in 7 games and a goal difference of 6:20
FC Twente is hard to beat on their home turf, with only one loss in 9 matches
Statistics from recent games at De Grolsch Veste indicate rather low-scoring matches, with an average of 2.0 goals per game