Eredivisie
Telstar - AZ
01/25/2026, 11:15 AM
Expected Goals
1.5
3.0
1.6
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
31%
Draw
32%
Away Win
37%
Goals
Over 1.5
93%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
45%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
63%
Away or Draw
69%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
71%
No
29%
Key Factors
- AZ is suffering from a major injury crisis affecting key players like S. Mijnans and J. Clasie, which significantly improves Telstar's chances
- Both teams have vulnerable defenses, especially away (AZ concedes 2.0 goals) and at home (Telstar 1.69), suggesting a high-scoring game in a stadium with a 100% BTTS rate
- Telstar's offense is showing a positive trend (1.6 goals avg recently) while AZ's attack has declined (1.5 goals), narrowing the quality gap
Risk Factors
- The very limited head-to-head history (only one match) offers little meaningful historical context for this duel
- The performance of AZ's replacement players is a major unknown and could swing the match in either direction despite the injuries
Overview
Telstar, in 16th place with 16 points, hosts AZ, in 7th place with 29 points, at the BUKO Stadion
This is an Eredivisie match on January 25, 2026, at 12:15 PM
Telstar is fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle against a top-half team
Form
Telstar form: DDWLD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)
AZ form: DLWLD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
Both teams show mixed form in their last five games
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Telstar scores an average of 1.26 goals and concedes 1.68 goals per game this season
AZ has a scoring average of 1.79 and also concedes 1.68 goals
At home, Telstar's defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.69 goals
AZ is defensively weak away, conceding an average of 2.00 goals per game
Both teams scored in 12 of Telstar's 19 games, while this was the case in 14 of AZ's 19 matches
Head-to-Head
In the only direct duel so far, AZ won 2-1 against Telstar
The goal difference is 1:2 from Telstar's perspective
AZ is listed as the recently dominant team
Key Players
Jeff Hardeveld is a key player for Telstar with 3 goals and 4 assists, and is showing rising form
Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp has scored 4 goals for the home team this season
Troy Parrott is AZ's top scorer with 10 seasonal goals
Mees de Wit is showing a rising form trend for AZ
Goalkeepers
Ronald Koeman Jr. is in goal for Telstar, having kept 3 clean sheets this season, but none at home
For AZ, Jeroen Zoet will be in goal as first-choice keeper R. Owusu-Oduro is injured
Influences
An average of 3.6 goals per game are scored at the BUKO Stadion, and both teams scored in 100% of the last five matches
The match will be played on artificial turf
AZ has a better record on this surface (2W-1D-1L) than Telstar (1W-5D-4L)