Eredivisie
Excelsior - Ajax
02/01/2026, 11:15 AM
Expected Goals
1.4
3.3
1.9
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
21%
Draw
23%
Away Win
56%
Goals
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
74%
Over 3.5
46%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
44%
Away or Draw
79%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
68%
No
32%
Key Factors
- Ajax's dominant offense (61% possession, 7.6 shots on target per game) meets Excelsior's vulnerable defense (1.75 goals conceded per game)
- The league standings (4th vs. 13th) and form trend (Ajax: WDWDW, Excelsior: LLLWL) indicate a clear advantage for the visitors
- Statistically, Ajax is the much more dangerous team, averaging 2.0 goals per away match
Risk Factors
- Despite Ajax's historical dominance, Excelsior won the most recent head-to-head match, which could boost their confidence
- The match is played on artificial turf, Excelsior's home surface, which could level the playing conditions
- Ajax had a shorter recovery period of only 4 days compared to Excelsior's 8 days, which could lead to fatigue
Overview
Excelsior (13th place, 22 points) hosts Ajax (4th place, 37 points) at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
Form
Excelsior Form: WLDDD - 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 games
Ajax Form: WDWWL - 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in the last 5 games
Ajax is in better form than Excelsior
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Ajax is significantly stronger offensively, scoring an average of 1.95 goals per game compared to Excelsior's 1.0
Defensively, Ajax is also more stable, conceding an average of 1.3 goals, while Excelsior concedes 1.75
Ajax is particularly dangerous away from home, with an average of 2.0 goals per away game
Both teams scored in 14 of Ajax's 20 league games, while for Excelsior this occurred in 12 of 20 games
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax won 2 times, Excelsior won 1 time, and 2 games ended in a draw
The goal difference is 16:8 in favor of Ajax
However, Excelsior won the last encounter 2-1
Key Players
For Excelsior, Noah Naujoks with 6 season goals and Irakli Yegoian with 3 goals and 2 assists are important players
For Ajax, Mika Godts with 8 goals and 7 assists, and Oscar Gloukh with 5 goals and 5 assists are decisive
Goalkeepers
Excelsior's goalkeeper Stijn van Gassel has kept 4 clean sheets in 20 matches this season
Ajax's goalkeeper Vitezslav Jaros has kept 5 clean sheets in 20 matches
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf
Excelsior's record on this surface is balanced with 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses
Ajax is unbeaten on artificial turf this season (1 win, 2 draws)
At the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, there is an average of 2.6 goals per game, and both teams score in 60% of the matches