Eredivisie
AZ - NEC Nijmegen
01/31/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.9
1.8
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
26%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
72%
Over 3.5
52%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
75%
No
25%
Key Factors
- Attacking Power Clash: NEC's potent away offense (2.67 goals per game) meets AZ's vulnerable home defense (1.45 goals conceded per game)
- Form Advantage for NEC: The visitors are unbeaten in five games (WDDWW), while AZ's form is inconsistent (LWLDW)
- Tactical Contrast: Both teams are strong in shooting (AZ 5.8, NEC 6.0 shots on target), suggesting an open game that contrasts with the venue's low-scoring history
Risk Factors
- Key Absences: AZ is missing midfield engine Sven Mijnans (5 goals, 5 assists), while NEC has to do without dangerous attacker B. Linssen (5 goals, 7 assists)
- Statistical Contradiction: Both teams' season data points to a high-scoring game, but the recent venue history shows the opposite with only 1.8 goals per game
- Defensive Frailties: Both teams concede over 1.5 goals per game on average, making the outcome unpredictable
Overview
AZ (5th place, 32 points) hosts NEC Nijmegen (4th place, 35 points) at the AFAS Stadion
This is an Eredivisie match on January 31, 2026, at 4:30 PM
A direct clash between two teams close in the standings, fighting for European spots
Form
AZ form: LWLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The home team has recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
NEC Nijmegen form: WDDWW
The visitors are unbeaten in their last 5 games with 3 wins and 2 draws, showing better form
Statistics
NEC Nijmegen has a more potent attack with a season average of 2.58 goals per game, compared to AZ's 1.75 goals
NEC is particularly prolific away from home, scoring 2.67 goals per game
Both teams' defenses are vulnerable, with AZ conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game, and NEC 1.74
Both teams scored in 14 of AZ's 20 games, and in 15 of NEC's 19 matches
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, the record is balanced with 2 wins for AZ, 2 wins for NEC Nijmegen, and 1 draw
AZ scored 9 goals in these matches, while NEC Nijmegen found the net 7 times
The last meeting ended in a 2-1 victory for NEC Nijmegen
Key Players
For AZ, Troy Parrott is the top scorer with 10 seasonal goals
Defender Mees de Wit has already contributed with 2 goals and 2 assists
For NEC Nijmegen, Koki Ogawa with 7 seasonal goals and 3 assists, and Sami Ouaissa with 5 goals are crucial
Tjaronn Chery is a key factor in midfield with 4 goals and 5 assists
Goalkeepers
Jeroen Zoet will be in goal for AZ, as Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro is injured
AZ has kept 5 clean sheets this season
NEC Nijmegen's goal will be defended by Gonzalo Crettaz
NEC has managed 3 clean sheets this season
Influences
Recent games at the AFAS Stadion have been rather low-scoring, with an average of 1.8 goals per game and only 20% of matches ending with over 2.5 goals
AZ has a negative home record on grass (3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses)
NEC Nijmegen boasts a strong away record on grass (6 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss)