Eredivisie
NEC Nijmegen - Heracles Almelo
02/07/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.9
1.1
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
56%
Draw
23%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
87%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
42%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
44%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Class difference: Top-tier team NEC Nijmegen (3rd place) faces relegation-threatened Heracles Almelo (16th place)
- Defensive collapse on the road: Heracles Almelo concedes an average of 4.14 goals away and meets a strong NEC home offense (2.5 goals per home game)
- Contrasting form: NEC is unbeaten in five games and on a winning streak, while Heracles has lost 4 of their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
- Historical clashes: Although NEC has been dominant recently, Heracles has won 2 of the last 5 encounters, showing they can cause an upset
- High-scoring history: Matches involving NEC are often unpredictable, highlighted by the high number of goals conceded (1.7 per game)
- Potential underestimation: As the clear favorite, NEC might take the game too lightly, especially against an opponent fighting relegation
Overview
NEC Nijmegen (3rd place, 38 points) hosts Heracles Almelo (16th place, 17 points) at Sportpark De Weeren. The Eredivisie match takes place on February 7, 2026, at 4:30 PM. It's a clash between a team at the top of the table and a team fighting relegation.
Form
NEC Nijmegen is in strong form, unbeaten in their last five matches (DDWWW), which includes 3 wins and 2 draws, with a current three-game winning streak. Heracles Almelo has lost 4 of their last 5 games (LLLLW) but managed to end a losing streak in their most recent match. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
NEC Nijmegen has a strong attack, averaging 2.6 goals per game, while Heracles Almelo averages 1.43 goals. Defensively, NEC is also more stable with 1.7 goals conceded per game, compared to Heracles, which concedes an average of 2.52 goals. Particularly notable is Heracles' weakness away from home, where they concede an average of 4.14 goals. 17 of NEC's 20 matches have seen over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, NEC Nijmegen has claimed 3 victories, while Heracles Almelo has won twice. There have been no draws. The goal difference is 11:7 in favor of NEC Nijmegen. The last meeting ended in a 4-1 victory for NEC Nijmegen.
Key Players
For NEC Nijmegen, Bryan Linssen (5 goals, 7 assists) and Koki Ogawa (7 goals, 3 assists) are crucial. Tjaronn Chery has contributed 5 goals and 5 assists. For Heracles Almelo, Jizz Hornkamp is the top scorer with 10 seasonal goals. Luka Kulenovic has scored 5 goals and provided 3 assists, while Ajdin Hrustic is a key playmaker with 6 assists.
Goalkeepers
NEC Nijmegen's goalkeeper, Gonzalo Crettaz, has kept 3 clean sheets in 20 appearances. Heracles Almelo, with Remko Pasveer in goal, has managed only one clean sheet this season as a team.
Influences
The home advantage for NEC Nijmegen is significant. On a grass surface, they have won 6 out of 10 home games, whereas Heracles Almelo is still winless away on the same surface (0 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses). The venue is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.8 goals per match and an 80% rate for games with over 2.5 goals.