Eredivisie
AZ - Ajax
02/08/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.6
1.7
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
38%
Draw
31%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
76%
Over 3.5
40%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
62%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
72%
No
28%
Key Factors
- Ajax's dominant attack (6.2 shots on target per game) meets a solid AZ home defense
- Historical dominance by AZ: 4 wins in the last 5 direct duels against Ajax, who couldn't win any
- Personnel worries for AZ: The absence of key player Sven Mijnans (5 goals, 5 assists) noticeably weakens the attack
Risk Factors
- Ajax's defensive vulnerability away from home: They have not kept a clean sheet in 11 away games this season
- AZ's declining offense: Their recent goal production (1.0 goals per game) is well below their season average (1.7)
Overview
AZ, in 7th place with 32 points, hosts Ajax, who are in 4th place with 38 points
The Eredivisie match will take place on February 8, 2026, at 2:30 PM at the AFAS Stadion
This is an important clash in the race for European spots, with only 6 points separating the teams
Form
AZ form: WDWWD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
Ajax form: WDWDW (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
Both teams are unbeaten in their last five league games and are showing stable form
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Ajax has a slightly stronger attack with 1.95 goals per game compared to AZ's 1.71 goals
Away from home, Ajax averages 2.0 goals per game
Defensively, Ajax is more stable with an average of 1.33 goals conceded per game, compared to AZ (1.67)
However, Ajax has not kept a single clean sheet in 11 away games this season
Both teams scored in 15 out of 21 league matches for both sides this season
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, AZ has won 4 times, while Ajax has failed to secure a single victory, with 1 match ending in a draw
The goal difference from these matches is 10:4 in favor of AZ
The last meeting was won 2-0 by AZ
Recent history clearly points to AZ's dominance
Key Players
For AZ, Troy Parrott is the top scorer with 11 season goals
Sven Mijnans has contributed with 5 goals and 5 assists
For Ajax, Mika Godts is the most dangerous attacker with 10 goals and 7 assists
Kasper Dolberg has scored 3 goals
Oscar Gloukh has been directly involved in 10 goals (5 goals, 5 assists)
Goalkeepers
Jeroen Zoet is expected to be in goal for AZ, with Vitezslav Jaros for Ajax
Both teams have kept 5 clean sheets so far this season, suggesting comparable goalkeeper performance over the course of the season
Influences
The AFAS Stadion has seen an average of 2.2 goals per game in recent matches, with both teams scoring in 60% of cases
On natural grass this season, Ajax has a better record (6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses) than AZ (3 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses)
Ajax is strong offensively away from home (avg 2.0 goals) but also vulnerable defensively (avg 1.73 goals conceded)