Eredivisie
Heracles Almelo - NAC Breda
02/14/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
3.2
1.6
1:1
12%1:2
9%2:1
8%2:2
7%0:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
26%
Away Win
40%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
61%
Under 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
39%
Under 3.5
61%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
60%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Critical weakening for Heracles: Without top scorer Jizz Hornkamp, only 52% of the season's goal production is available, severely impacting their offense
- Artificial turf advantage: NAC Breda has lost all their away games on artificial turf this season, while Heracles is accustomed to their home surface
- Defensive vulnerability meets rising form: Heracles' porous defense (2.59 goals conceded per game) faces a NAC attack that has recently been more clinical than their season average
Risk Factors
- Low offensive power for Heracles: The absence of their top striker drastically reduces the home team's goal-scoring threat
- Catastrophic league form: Heracles has lost their last five league games in a row, which severely affects their confidence
- Limited data availability: Missing detailed performance data (xG) for some recent matches could affect the tactical assessment
Overview
A crucial duel in the Eredivisie relegation battle is ahead
Heracles Almelo (17th place, 17 points) hosts NAC Breda (18th place, 16 points)
The match takes place on February 14, 2026, at 4:30 PM at the Asito Stadion
Both teams are fighting for vital points to escape the relegation zone
Form
Heracles Almelo is in poor form with a record of LLLWL from their last five matches (1 win, 4 losses)
NAC Breda is also not in good shape with DLDDL, but they managed 3 draws and 2 losses
In the league, Heracles' form is catastrophic with five consecutive losses (LLLLL)
NAC Breda's league form is LWLLD
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Heracles Almelo has one of the weakest defenses in the league, conceding 57 goals in 22 matches (an average of 2.59 per game)
NAC Breda is also vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.00 goals per game
Offensively, Heracles scores 1.43 goals per game at home, while NAC Breda averages 1.00 goal away
The Asito Stadion sees an average of 3.2 goals per game, suggesting a high-scoring encounter
Head-to-Head
The record of the last five head-to-head encounters is perfectly balanced
Both teams have won two matches each, with one game ending in a draw
The goal difference is narrowly in favor of Heracles Almelo at 6:5
The last meeting was won by NAC Breda with a score of 2-1
Key Players
For Heracles Almelo, Luka Kulenovic with 5 season goals and 3 assists, and Ajdin Hrustic with 6 assists are key players
For NAC Breda, Charles-Andreas Brym (2 goals, 4 assists) and Moussa Soumano (3 goals) are showing rising form
Goalkeepers
In goal for Heracles Almelo is Remko Pasveer; the team has kept one clean sheet this season
For NAC Breda, Daniel Bielica is the goalkeeper; his team has managed to keep a clean sheet twice this season
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf, Heracles Almelo's home surface
NAC Breda has lost all three of their matches on artificial turf this season (0 wins, 3 losses)
Heracles has a mixed home record on this surface (4 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses)
This surface advantage could be decisive for Heracles