Eredivisie
SC Heerenveen - PEC Zwolle
02/15/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.9
1.2
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
46%
Draw
27%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
54%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Critical absences for Heerenveen: The home team is missing key offensive players, leaving only 34% of their usual goal threat available
- Zwolle's away weakness: The visitors have one of the most vulnerable away defenses in the league, conceding an average of 2.73 goals per game
- Contrasting attacking trends: While Heerenveen's goal output has recently declined, Zwolle's attack has significantly improved compared to their season average
Risk Factors
- Massively weakened Heerenveen attack: Due to the absences of players like D. Vente, the attacking power is severely reduced
- Vulnerable home defense: Heerenveen has not kept a single clean sheet at home this season
- Potential fatigue: Heerenveen has had only 4 days of rest since their last match, while Zwolle had 8 days to recover
Overview
SC Heerenveen (10th place, 28 points) host PEC Zwolle (13th place, 26 points) at the Abe Lenstra Stadion
This is an Eredivisie clash on February 15, 2026, at 2:30 PM
Both teams are neighbors in the mid-table, which suggests a close match
The mathematical analysis slightly favors the home team with a 46% win probability
Form
SC Heerenveen form (all competitions): DLDLW
In the last 5 games, there has been 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
The league form is DLLDL
PEC Zwolle form (all competitions): DWLWL
The away team has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from their last 5 matches
In the league, the form is WWLLL
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Offensively, Heerenveen scores an average of 1.59 goals per game, while Zwolle averages 1.41
Defensively, Zwolle is significantly more vulnerable, conceding 2.05 goals per game, compared to Heerenveen's 1.68
Zwolle's defense is particularly weak away from home, conceding an average of 2.73 goals per game
Heerenveen has not kept a clean sheet at home this season
In 15 of 22 matches for both teams, there were over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, the record is completely balanced with 1 win for each team and 3 draws
The goal difference is also very close at 7:6 in favor of SC Heerenveen
The last meeting was won by PEC Zwolle with a score of 2-1
Key Players
Lasse NordƄs has been on target recently with 2 goals in the last 5 games
Maxence Rivera contributed 2 assists in the same period
Joris van Overeem has scored 1 goal and provided 3 assists this season
Koen Kostons is Zwolle's top scorer with 10 goals and 5 assists
Shola Shoretire is in excellent form, having scored 4 times in the last 5 matches
Younes Namli has been directly involved in 3 goals in his last 5 appearances (1 goal, 2 assists)
Goalkeepers
Bernt Klaverboer is in goal for Heerenveen; his team has kept 2 clean sheets this season
For Zwolle, Tom de Graaff is the goalkeeper; his team has managed to keep a clean sheet 4 times
Influences
At the Abe Lenstra Stadion, there has been an average of 2.8 goals in the last 5 matches
In 60% of these games, both teams scored
SC Heerenveen is vulnerable at home, conceding an average of 1.73 goals per game