Eredivisie
Excelsior - AZ
02/14/2026, 05:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.7
1.4
1:1
14%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
29%
Away Win
39%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Contrasting form: Excelsior is unbeaten in five games (DDDDW), while AZ is inconsistent (LDWLD), giving the home team resilience
- AZ's offensive strength: With 1.68 goals per game, AZ has a clear attacking advantage, while both defenses are vulnerable, increasing the likelihood of goals from both sides (57% BTTS probability)
- Numerous absences for AZ: The visitors will be without several players, including suspended midfielder P. Koopmeiners (21 season appearances), which could disrupt the team structure
Risk Factors
- Excelsior's weak offense: Although they have scored more recently, their season average is only 1.09 goals per game, which could be a problem against a stronger opponent
- Balanced win probabilities: The mathematical predictions are very close with 32% for a home win, 29% for a draw, and 39% for an away win, indicating an unpredictable outcome
- Historical record: AZ has clearly dominated the head-to-head encounters in the recent past with a goal difference of 12:4
Overview
Excelsior (12th place, 26 points) host AZ (7th place, 33 points) at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
The Eredivisie match takes place on February 14, 2026, 6:45 PM
This is a mid-table clash where the mathematical forecast predicts a very close game, with a slight edge for the visitors (39% win probability)
Form
Excelsior's form in all competitions: DDDDW (1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses)
AZ's form in all competitions: LDWLD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
Excelsior are unbeaten in their last five matches but have mostly drawn
AZ has been inconsistent recently with mixed results
However, AZ's league form (WDWWD) is significantly stronger than Excelsior's (LLLWL)
Statistics
AZ is more potent offensively with 1.68 goals per game compared to Excelsior's 1.09 goals
Both defenses are vulnerable, conceding over 1.6 goals per game on average
Both teams scored in 16 of AZ's 22 league games this season
For Excelsior, this occurred in 13 of 22 games
AZ has failed to score in only one match this season
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, AZ has the upper hand with 2 wins, compared to 1 for Excelsior, with 2 matches ending in a draw
The goal difference of 12:4 is clearly in favor of AZ
The last meeting on January 21, 2026, ended in a 1-1 draw
Key Players
For Excelsior, Noah Naujoks (6 season goals) and Irakli Yegoian (4 goals) are the most dangerous players in front of goal
Gyan de Regt is a key provider with 4 assists
For AZ, Troy Parrott is the standout striker with 11 season goals
Mees de Wit has contributed with 2 goals and 2 assists this season
Goalkeepers
Excelsior's goalkeeper Stijn van Gassel has kept 5 clean sheets this season
AZ has also achieved 5 clean sheets in the season
Jeroen Zoet is expected to be in goal for AZ
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf, which could affect the home advantage
Both teams have a positive record on this surface
Excelsior has 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses on artificial turf
AZ has won 3 of their 5 games on this surface (1 draw, 1 loss)
Recently, matches at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion have seen an average of 2.8 goals per game