Eredivisie
Go Ahead Eagles - Heracles Almelo
02/22/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.8
1.5
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
28%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- Critical absence for Heracles: Only 55% of the seasonal goal threat is available as top scorer Jizz Hornkamp (10 goals) is not in the squad
- Extremely weak away defense: Heracles Almelo concedes an average of 4.12 goals per game on the road
- Statistical model: Despite poor form, the prediction model slightly favors Heracles, expecting 1.53 goals for the visitors
Risk Factors
- Reduced home offense: Go Ahead Eagles are missing Milan Smit, leaving only 64% of their seasonal goal threat on the pitch
- Negative form of both teams: Both sides are in a slump, making the match outcome difficult to predict
Overview
Relegation battle in the Eredivisie: Go Ahead Eagles (15th place, 23 points) host Heracles Almelo (18th place, 17 points)
The match will take place on February 22, 2026, at 2:30 PM at De Adelaarshorst stadium
Both teams are fighting for crucial points to escape the relegation zone
The mathematical analysis slightly favors the visitors with a 42% win probability
Form
Both teams are in a form crisis
Go Ahead Eagles form: DDDLL (W=Win, D=Draw, L=Loss)
They are winless in their last 5 matches, with 3 draws and 2 losses
Heracles Almelo form: LLWLL
The visitors have won only one of their last 5 matches, losing 4, including the last two games
Statistics
The offense of both teams is comparable, with around 1.4 goals per game
The key difference is in defense: Heracles Almelo concedes an average of 2.52 goals per game, while Go Ahead Eagles concede 1.7
Heracles Almelo's defense is extremely vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 4.12 goals
At De Adelaarshorst stadium, there's an average of 2.4 goals per game, and in 4 of the last 5 matches, both teams have scored
Head-to-Head
The historical record of the last 5 encounters is relatively balanced
Go Ahead Eagles have recorded 2 wins, while Heracles Almelo have won 3 times
The goal difference is 12:11 in favor of Go Ahead Eagles
The last meeting in November 2025 was won by Heracles Almelo with a score of 4-2
Key Players
For Go Ahead Eagles, Mathis Suray stands out with 8 goals this season, supported by Jakob Breum, who has provided 4 assists
Melle Meulensteen has also contributed 4 goals
For Heracles Almelo, Luka Kulenovic is the most dangerous attacker with 5 goals and 3 assists
Ajdin Hrustic is the team's main creator with 6 assists, while defender Damon Mirani has already scored 3 goals
Goalkeepers
Jari De Busser has been in goal for Go Ahead Eagles in 23 league games, keeping 3 clean sheets
Heracles Almelo's Remko Pasveer has made 3 appearances this season
The Heracles Almelo team has managed only one clean sheet in total
Influences
Go Ahead Eagles are defensively more stable at home, conceding an average of 1.33 goals, compared to 2.09 away
Heracles Almelo has an extreme weakness in away games, conceding an average of 4.12 goals per match on the road
De Adelaarshorst stadium has a high rate of 80% for 'Both teams to score' in the last 5 matches