Eredivisie
FC Utrecht - PEC Zwolle
02/22/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.9
1.3
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%2:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
28%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Extreme contrast in home and away performances: Utrecht's stable home defense (0.92 goals conceded per game) meets Zwolle's vulnerable away defense (2.62 goals conceded per game)
- Contrasting form curves: FC Utrecht enters the match with a two-game winning streak, while PEC Zwolle has lost its last two games
- Historical dominance and current trend: Utrecht has won the majority of recent encounters and is currently in better form
Risk Factors
- PEC Zwolle's attack is dangerous despite recent losses, and according to statistics, they are currently scoring more goals (2.2 per game) than their season average (1.4)
- The probability of both teams scoring is relatively high at 59%, suggesting an open and potentially unpredictable match
Overview
FC Utrecht (10th place, 30 points) hosts PEC Zwolle (13th place, 26 points) at Stadion Galgenwaard
Eredivisie match on February 22, 2026, 2:30 PM
A clash of two mid-table teams, with Utrecht looking to climb and Zwolle aiming to increase the gap to the bottom
The mathematical analysis favors the home team with a 44% probability of winning
Form
FC Utrecht form: L-D-L-W-W
From the last five games, Utrecht has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
The team enters this match with two consecutive wins
PEC Zwolle form: W-L-W-L-L
PEC Zwolle has won 2 of its last five games and lost 3
The team has lost its last two matches
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
FC Utrecht is relatively stable at home, conceding an average of only 0.92 goals per game
PEC Zwolle is very vulnerable defensively away from home, allowing an average of 2.62 goals
Matches involving Zwolle have seen more games with over 2.5 goals (16 out of 23) than Utrecht's matches (13 out of 23)
Both teams have scored and conceded in 16 of their 23 league games this season
Head-to-Head
In the last five direct encounters, there were 3 wins for FC Utrecht, 1 win for PEC Zwolle, and 1 draw
The goal difference is clearly in favor of FC Utrecht at 11:5
Utrecht won the last meeting 2-0
Key Players
Souffian El Karouani is a key factor in Utrecht's attack with 2 goals and 10 assists
Gjivai Zechiël has contributed 5 goals and 3 assists this season
Ángel Alarcón has quickly integrated with 1 goal and 1 assist in 4 games
Koen Kostons is the top scorer for PEC Zwolle with 10 goals and 6 assists
Shola Shoretire has shown good form recently, scoring 3 goals in his last four appearances
Kaj de Rooij has already recorded 5 goals and 5 assists this season
Goalkeepers
Vasilios Barkas of FC Utrecht has kept a clean sheet in 3 of 22 league games this season
Tom de Graaff of PEC Zwolle has managed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of his 21 appearances
Influences
The home advantage for Utrecht is statistically significant, with only 0.92 goals conceded per home game compared to Zwolle's 2.62 away goals conceded
The last five games at Stadion Galgenwaard have been rather low-scoring with an average of just 2.0 goals
PEC Zwolle's attacking approach (average 6.0 shots on target) meets Utrecht's more counter-attacking style (42.4% possession)