Eredivisie
Fortuna Sittard - Excelsior
02/20/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.9
1.5
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
28%
Away Win
41%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
60%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Excelsior's away weakness: The team concedes an average of 2.09 goals away from home, which plays into the hands of Fortuna Sittard's solid home attack (1.46 goals/game)
- Better recent form for Excelsior: Despite being level on points, Excelsior is in better form with only one loss in five games (1W, 3D) compared to Fortuna (1W, 1D, 3L), supporting the mathematical prediction (41% win probability)
- High-scoring history at the stadium: Fortuna's last five home games saw an average of 4.0 goals with both teams always scoring, suggesting an open match
Risk Factors
- Inconsistent home form: Fortuna Sittard has lost three of their last five matches and is not reliable despite better home statistics
- Low goal threat from both teams: Both teams generate few shots on target (Fortuna 3.4, Excelsior 3.2 on average), which could reduce the goal probability
- Numerous absences for Fortuna: The home team has a significantly longer injury list with six sidelined players compared to Excelsior's one
Overview
Fortuna Sittard (11th place, 26 points) host Excelsior (12th place, 26 points) at Fortuna Sittard Stadion
Eredivisie match on February 20, 2026, 8:00 PM
This is a direct duel between two teams level on points in the table
Form
Fortuna Sittard's form: LWLDL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses in the last 5 games)
Excelsior's form: DDDWL (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 games)
Excelsior has recently been harder to beat, while Fortuna Sittard has lost three of their last five matches
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Offensively, Fortuna Sittard is slightly stronger with an average of 1.48 goals per game compared to Excelsior (1.09)
Defensively, both teams are vulnerable, especially Excelsior who concede an average of 2.09 goals away from home
The last 5 home games for Fortuna saw an average of 4.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring every time
Head-to-Head
The record of the last 5 encounters is perfectly balanced
Both teams won 2 matches each, with one draw
The goal difference is 8:8
The last meeting was won by Excelsior 1-0
Key Players
For Fortuna Sittard, Kaj Sierhuis (8 season goals) and Mohamed Ihattaren (4 goals, 6 assists) are the key offensive players
For Excelsior, Noah Naujoks is the top scorer with 6 goals, while Gyan de Regt is important as a provider (4 assists)
Goalkeepers
In goal for Fortuna Sittard is Luuk Koopmans, whose team has achieved 3 clean sheets this season
For Excelsior, Stijn van Gassel is the goalkeeper, and his team has managed 5 clean sheets
Influences
Fortuna Sittard is significantly more stable defensively at home (1.31 goals conceded) than away (2.5)
The Fortuna Sittard Stadion has recently been a venue for high-scoring games
In the last five matches, there was an average of 4.0 goals and both teams scored in every game