Eredivisie
SC Heerenveen - Sparta Rotterdam
02/28/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.1
1.4
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
SC Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
26%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- The mathematical model favors Heerenveen with a 45% win probability and expects 1.71 goals for the home team
- Heerenveen's offense is consistent at home, averaging 1.69 goals per game, while Sparta is defensively vulnerable away (1.62 goals conceded)
- Recent matches at the Abe Lenstra Stadion have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.2 goals per game, suggesting an open match
Risk Factors
- Heerenveen's defense is very unstable, conceding an average of 1.7 goals per game and having not kept a single clean sheet at home
- Sparta Rotterdam has slightly better recent form and a positive head-to-head record (won 3 of the last 5)
- Data availability is limited for some of Heerenveen's recent matches due to missing xG values, which could affect the accuracy of offensive forecasts
Overview
SC Heerenveen (10th place, 31 points) hosts Sparta Rotterdam (7th place, 37 points) at the Abe Lenstra Stadion
Eredivisie match on February 28, 2026, 4:30 PM
A mid-table clash where the hosts are looking to close the gap to the top half
Form
SC Heerenveen form: DLWWL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
Sparta Rotterdam form: WWDDL (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)
Both teams lost their last match
Sparta Rotterdam has been slightly more consistent than Heerenveen in the last five games
Statistics
SC Heerenveen scores an average of 1.7 goals per game and also concedes 1.7 goals
Sparta Rotterdam scores 1.29 goals per game and concedes 1.67 goals
Heerenveen has not kept a clean sheet at home yet
Both teams scored in 16 of Heerenveen's 23 matches
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for SC Heerenveen and 3 wins for Sparta Rotterdam
The goal difference is balanced at 8:8
The last encounter was won by Sparta Rotterdam 3-0
Key Players
Jacob Trenskow (8 season goals, 2 assists) and Lasse NordƄs (4 goals in 6 games) are the main threats in Heerenveen's attack
Joris van Overeem is a key playmaker with 5 assists
For Sparta Rotterdam, Tobias Lauritsen is the top scorer with 10 season goals
Shunsuke Mito has shown strong form in recent games with 3 goals and 1 assist
Joshua Kitolano has contributed 5 goals and 2 assists
Goalkeepers
Heerenveen's Bernt Klaverboer has kept 2 clean sheets this season, none of them at home
Sparta Rotterdam's Joƫl Drommel has 9 clean sheets, 5 of which were away
Influences
The Abe Lenstra Stadion has seen a high goal average of 3.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 3 of these 5 games
Heerenveen is solid offensively at home (1.69 goals/game) but also vulnerable defensively (1.62 goals conceded/game)