Eredivisie
PEC Zwolle - Ajax
03/01/2026, 11:15 AM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.8
1.8
1:1
12%0:2
10%1:2
10%0:3
6%1:3
6%What influences the xG?
PEC Zwolle
Ajax
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
19%
Draw
25%
Away Win
56%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
44%
Away or Draw
81%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Quality gap: Ajax's superior offensive (1.96 goals/game) and defensive (1.29 conceded/game) stats compared to Zwolle's (1.42 scored, 2.08 conceded) create a clear mismatch, supported by the model's 56% win probability for Ajax
- Historical dominance: Ajax is unbeaten in the last five encounters against PEC Zwolle, winning four and achieving a goal difference of 11:4
- Surface advantage for Ajax: Although playing at home, Zwolle's advantage is mitigated by the artificial turf, on which Ajax remains undefeated away from home this season (1 win, 3 draws)
Risk Factors
- Ajax's defensive vulnerability away: The team has failed to keep a single clean sheet in all 12 away matches this season
- Zwolle's consistent scoring: PEC Zwolle has scored in 21 out of 24 league games, making them a threat to score at home against a vulnerable Ajax defense, the probability for both teams to score is calculated at 54%
- Significant absences for Ajax: The away team is missing several players due to injury, including K. Dolberg and V. JaroÅ”, which could impact their depth and stability
Overview
PEC Zwolle, in 12th place in the table with 27 points, hosts Ajax, 4th with 43 points
The Eredivisie match will take place on March 1, 2026, at 12:15 PM at the MACĀ³PARK Stadion
Ajax are the clear favorites in this clash, fighting for European spots, while Zwolle is in the lower mid-table
The mathematical analysis gives Ajax a 56% probability of winning
Form
PEC Zwolle form (all competitions): LWLLD
The home team has won only one of their last five matches (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
Ajax form (all competitions): LDDWD
The visitors are slightly more stable, having lost only once in their last five games (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Ajax has a significantly stronger attack, averaging 1.96 goals per game compared to PEC Zwolle's 1.42
A similar picture emerges in defense: Ajax concedes an average of 1.29 goals, while Zwolle has one of the weaker defenses in the league with 2.08 goals conceded per game
Ajax is particularly prolific away from home (1.92 goals per game), but also concedes a relatively high number of goals (1.67)
Both teams tend to be involved in high-scoring games with goals from both sides; in 17 of 24 matches for Zwolle both teams scored, for Ajax it was 18 of 24
Head-to-Head
In the last five direct encounters, PEC Zwolle has failed to win a single game
Ajax dominated with 4 wins, while one match ended in a draw
The goal difference is clearly in favor of Ajax at 11:4
The last meeting ended in a 3-1 victory for Ajax
Key Players
Koen Kostons (10 goals, 6 assists) is the focal point of PEC Zwolle's attack, supported by Shola Shoretire (5 goals, 1 assist) and Younes Namli (2 goals, 3 assists)
For Ajax, Mika Godts is the standout player of the season with 13 goals and 8 assists
Other key players include Wout Weghorst (6 goals, 2 assists) and Oscar Gloukh (5 goals, 5 assists)
Goalkeepers
In goal for PEC Zwolle is Tom de Graaff
His team has kept 4 clean sheets this season
For Ajax, Maarten Paes will be between the posts
Ajax has managed to keep a clean sheet 5 times this season
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf
Ajax is still unbeaten on this surface away from home this season (1 win, 3 draws)
PEC Zwolle has a mixed home record on artificial turf (5 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses)
The MACĀ³PARK Stadion is known for high-scoring games: in the last 5 matches, there was an average of 3.2 goals and in 80% of cases, both teams scored