Eredivisie
NEC Nijmegen - Fortuna Sittard
02/28/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.1
1.0
1:1
11%2:1
10%2:0
10%3:1
7%3:0
7%What influences the xG?
NEC Nijmegen
Fortuna Sittard
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
60%
Draw
23%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
40%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Clear matchup imbalance: NEC's strong home offense (2.5 goals per game) meets Fortuna Sittard's extremely vulnerable away defense (2.5 goals conceded per game)
- Dominance in the standings and on the pitch: As third in the table, NEC controls the game (61% possession), while Fortuna, in eleventh, tends to react
- Strong prediction signal: The mathematical analysis supports the favorite's role with a 61% win probability for NEC Nijmegen
Risk Factors
- Personnel worries for the visitors: Fortuna Sittard is weakened by several absences, including starting goalkeeper M. Branderhorst and goal-scoring midfielder J. Lonwijk (4 season goals)
- NEC's defensive vulnerability: Despite being favorites, NEC concedes goals regularly; both teams scored in all of their last 5 home games. The probability of both teams scoring is 57%
Overview
NEC Nijmegen (3rd place, 43 points) host Fortuna Sittard (11th place, 29 points) at the Goffertstadion
Eredivisie match on February 28, 2026, 9:00 PM
The home team enters the duel as clear favorites and aims to solidify their position among the top teams
Form
NEC Nijmegen form (all competitions): WWLDD
In the last 5 games, there have been 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
The last two matches ended in a draw
Fortuna Sittard form (all competitions): WLDLW
The record of the last 5 games is balanced with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
NEC Nijmegen has one of the strongest attacks in the league, averaging 2.46 goals per game, and even 2.5 at home
Fortuna Sittard scores an average of 1.5 goals per game but concedes a worrying 2.5 goals away from home
For NEC, 20 out of 24 season games have seen both teams score
For Fortuna, this was the case in 18 out of 24 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, NEC Nijmegen has dominated with 3 wins to Fortuna Sittard's 1, with 1 draw
The goal difference is also clearly in NEC's favor at 14:6
However, Fortuna Sittard won the most recent encounter 3-2
Key Players
For NEC Nijmegen, Koki Ogawa (8 goals, 3 assists), Tjaronn Chery (6 goals, 5 assists), and Başar Önal (5 goals, 6 assists) are the key offensive players
For Fortuna Sittard, Kaj Sierhuis (9 goals), Mohamed Ihattaren (5 goals, 6 assists), and Lance Duijvestijn (2 goals in 5 appearances) are the crucial players
Goalkeepers
Gonzalo Crettaz is the main goalkeeper for NEC Nijmegen
On the other side, Luuk Koopmans is in goal for Fortuna Sittard, as the main goalkeeper M. Branderhorst is injured
Both teams have kept 3 clean sheets this season so far
Influences
The Goffertstadion is a fortress for NEC Nijmegen, where they score an average of 2.5 goals per game
The last 5 home games have been extremely high-scoring, with an average of 4.0 goals per game
In all 5 matches, both teams scored and there were always more than 2.5 goals