Eredivisie
FC Utrecht - AZ
03/01/2026, 03:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.8
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
10%0:2
9%2:1
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
FC Utrecht
AZ
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
24%
Draw
27%
Away Win
48%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
52%
Away or Draw
76%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- AZ's strong attack (1.75 goals/game) meets Utrecht's solid home defense (0.92 goals conceded/game)
- AZ shows a positive form trend, scoring more recently (2.0) than their season average (1.75)
- AZ's defense is vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 1.7 goals per game
Risk Factors
- AZ has had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
- The head-to-head record is very tight, with three of the last five meetings ending in a draw
Overview
FC Utrecht (10th place, 31 points) hosts AZ (5th place, 39 points) at Stadion Galgenwaard
Eredivisie match on March 1, 2026, 4:45 PM
AZ is fighting for European spots, while Utrecht is in the mid-table
The mathematical analysis favors AZ with a win probability of 48%
Form
FC Utrecht form: D-L-W-W-D (W=Win, D=Draw, L=Loss)
The home team has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games
Utrecht's form is stable
AZ form: D-W-L-W-W
The visitors have won 3 of their last 5 games, with 1 draw and 1 loss
AZ is on a 2-game winning streak and shows a positive trend
Statistics
Offensively, AZ is slightly stronger with an average of 1.75 goals per game compared to Utrecht's 1.5
Defensively, Utrecht is more stable with 1.29 goals conceded per game than AZ with 1.58
Utrecht is particularly strong defensively at home, conceding only 0.92 goals on average
AZ is vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 1.7 goals per game
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, the record was completely balanced with 1 win each and 3 draws
The goal difference from Utrecht's perspective is 7:9
The last meeting was won by AZ with a score of 4:1
Key Players
For FC Utrecht, Souffian El Karouani (2 goals, 10 assists), Gjivai Zechiƫl (5 goals, 3 assists), and Dani de Wit (4 goals, 2 assists) are key players
For AZ, Sven Mijnans (6 goals, 5 assists), Mexx Meerdink (3 goals, 1 assist), and Mees de Wit (2 goals, 4 assists) are crucial
Goalkeepers
Vasilios Barkas in goal for FC Utrecht has kept 3 clean sheets this season
AZ's Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro has managed to keep 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
FC Utrecht is defensively very solid at Stadion Galgenwaard, conceding less than one goal per game on average (0.92)
The last five home games have been rather low-scoring with an average of 1.8 goals
Both teams scored in only 2 of the last 5 matches at Stadion Galgenwaard