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Eredivisie

Telstar - NAC Breda

02/27/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Telstar
1.1
Total xG
2.8
NAC Breda
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
TELNB

Telstar

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-1.01
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.13
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match)

NAC Breda

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.03
Sydney van Hooijdonk not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 60% available)
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

25%

Draw

28%

Away Win

48%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

52%

Away or Draw

75%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Contrasting form: NAC Breda is on an upswing with two straight wins, while Telstar has been winless for five games
  • Crucial relegation battle: As a match between 17th and 16th, the game is pivotal, with NAC Breda holding a 4-point lead
  • Clear favorite according to the model: The mathematical analysis sees NAC Breda as the clear favorite with a 48% win probability, compared to Telstar's 25%
Risk Factors
  • Offensive dependency for NAC Breda: Only 60% of their goal threat is available, as key player Sydney van Hooijdonk (5 goals, 1 assist) is not in the squad
  • Injury concerns for NAC Breda: The team is missing three players due to injury, including defender L. Greiml and attacker M. Soumano
  • Telstar's home weakness: Despite playing at home, Telstar has failed to win any of their last 10 matches on their own artificial turf
Overview

In the Eredivisie relegation battle, Telstar (17th place, 18 points) faces NAC Breda (16th place, 22 points)

The match will take place on February 27, 2026, at 8:00 PM at the BUKO Stadion

Both teams are fighting for crucial points to escape the relegation zone

Form

Telstar is in a form crisis with no wins in their last five matches

Their form is LLDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss), which translates to 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses

NAC Breda, on the other hand, shows an upward trend with a form of DDLWW

They have won their last two matches and have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from their last five games

Statistics

Both teams struggle offensively, with Telstar averaging 1.17 goals per game and NAC Breda 1.04

Defensively, both teams are vulnerable; Telstar concedes an average of 1.71 goals, while NAC Breda concedes 1.5

NAC Breda's defense is particularly weak in away games, conceding 1.8 goals per match

In 16 of Telstar's 24 games, both teams scored

Head-to-Head

There has been only one direct encounter between the two teams in recent history

In that match, Telstar secured a 1-0 victory over NAC Breda

Key Players

For Telstar, Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp (5 goals, 1 assist) and Jeff Hardeveld (4 goals, 4 assists) are the key offensive players

Nils Rossen has also contributed with 3 goals and 1 assist

For NAC Breda, Charles-Andreas Brym (2 goals, 4 assists), defender Boy Kemper (3 goals, 2 assists), and Mohamed Nassoh (3 goals, 1 assist) are the main scorers

Goalkeepers

Telstar's goalkeeper is Ronald Koeman Jr.; his team has kept 3 clean sheets this season

Daniel Bielica is the goalkeeper for NAC Breda, which has kept 4 clean sheets

Both goalkeepers have similar statistical records this season

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf, on which Telstar has a very poor home record (0 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses)

NAC Breda also has a negative away record on this surface (1 win, 0 draws, 3 losses)

The BUKO Stadion has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last five matches, with both teams scoring in 80% of those games

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