Eredivisie
Telstar - NAC Breda
02/27/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.8
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
10%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Telstar
NAC Breda
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
25%
Draw
28%
Away Win
48%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
52%
Away or Draw
75%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Contrasting form: NAC Breda is on an upswing with two straight wins, while Telstar has been winless for five games
- Crucial relegation battle: As a match between 17th and 16th, the game is pivotal, with NAC Breda holding a 4-point lead
- Clear favorite according to the model: The mathematical analysis sees NAC Breda as the clear favorite with a 48% win probability, compared to Telstar's 25%
Risk Factors
- Offensive dependency for NAC Breda: Only 60% of their goal threat is available, as key player Sydney van Hooijdonk (5 goals, 1 assist) is not in the squad
- Injury concerns for NAC Breda: The team is missing three players due to injury, including defender L. Greiml and attacker M. Soumano
- Telstar's home weakness: Despite playing at home, Telstar has failed to win any of their last 10 matches on their own artificial turf
Overview
In the Eredivisie relegation battle, Telstar (17th place, 18 points) faces NAC Breda (16th place, 22 points)
The match will take place on February 27, 2026, at 8:00 PM at the BUKO Stadion
Both teams are fighting for crucial points to escape the relegation zone
Form
Telstar is in a form crisis with no wins in their last five matches
Their form is LLDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss), which translates to 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses
NAC Breda, on the other hand, shows an upward trend with a form of DDLWW
They have won their last two matches and have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from their last five games
Statistics
Both teams struggle offensively, with Telstar averaging 1.17 goals per game and NAC Breda 1.04
Defensively, both teams are vulnerable; Telstar concedes an average of 1.71 goals, while NAC Breda concedes 1.5
NAC Breda's defense is particularly weak in away games, conceding 1.8 goals per match
In 16 of Telstar's 24 games, both teams scored
Head-to-Head
There has been only one direct encounter between the two teams in recent history
In that match, Telstar secured a 1-0 victory over NAC Breda
Key Players
For Telstar, Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp (5 goals, 1 assist) and Jeff Hardeveld (4 goals, 4 assists) are the key offensive players
Nils Rossen has also contributed with 3 goals and 1 assist
For NAC Breda, Charles-Andreas Brym (2 goals, 4 assists), defender Boy Kemper (3 goals, 2 assists), and Mohamed Nassoh (3 goals, 1 assist) are the main scorers
Goalkeepers
Telstar's goalkeeper is Ronald Koeman Jr.; his team has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Daniel Bielica is the goalkeeper for NAC Breda, which has kept 4 clean sheets
Both goalkeepers have similar statistical records this season
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf, on which Telstar has a very poor home record (0 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses)
NAC Breda also has a negative away record on this surface (1 win, 0 draws, 3 losses)
The BUKO Stadion has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last five matches, with both teams scoring in 80% of those games