Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam - PEC Zwolle
03/08/2026, 11:15 AM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.6
1.1
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
9%1:2
6%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
46%
Draw
29%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
54%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis sees a home win for Sparta Rotterdam with 46%
- Guests' defensive weakness: PEC Zwolle concedes a high average of 2.50 goals per away game
- Guests' offensive strength: PEC Zwolle currently scores more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.4)
Risk Factors
- Historical record: PEC Zwolle recently dominated head-to-head matches with 3 wins in 5 games
- Goalkeeper form: Sparta Rotterdam's goalkeeper Joël Drommel shows declining form (recent rating 6.61)
- Low goal average at stadium: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel has a low average of 2.0 goals per game
Overview
Sparta Rotterdam (8th place, 37 points) host PEC Zwolle (13th place, 28 points) at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel
Eredivisie match on March 8, 2026, 12:15 PM
Sparta Rotterdam aims to close the gap to the top half of the table, while PEC Zwolle needs points in the relegation battle
Form
Sparta Rotterdam's current form across all competitions is WDDLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
This equates to 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games
Sparta Rotterdam recently lost 1-2 against SC Heerenveen and 1-3 against AZ away
PEC Zwolle's form across all competitions is WLLDD
This equates to 1 win, 2 losses, and 2 draws in their last 5 games
PEC Zwolle recently drew 0-0 against Ajax and 1-1 against FC Utrecht
Statistics
Sparta Rotterdam scores an average of 1.28 goals per game and concedes 1.68 goals
At home, these values are 1.27 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded
PEC Zwolle scores an average of 1.36 goals and concedes 2.00 goals per game
Away from home, they score 1.36 goals and concede a high 2.50 goals per match
Sparta Rotterdam kept a clean sheet in 9 games, PEC Zwolle in 5 matches
Both teams scored in 11 of Sparta Rotterdam's games and 17 of PEC Zwolle's games
At Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, an average of 2.0 goals per game are scored
In 1 of 5 games at the stadium, both teams scored, and in 1 of 5 games, over 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams, Sparta Rotterdam secured 1 win
PEC Zwolle won 3 matches, and 1 game ended in a draw
The goal difference is 3:6 in favor of PEC Zwolle
The last encounter on November 8, 2025, ended with a 0-1 defeat for Sparta Rotterdam against PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle has been more dominant in recent meetings
Key Players
For Sparta Rotterdam, key players include Tobias Lauritsen (10 season goals, 3 assists) whose form is declining
Shunsuke Mito (5 season goals, 3 assists) shows a rising form trend
Joshua Kitolano (5 season goals, 2 assists) has a declining form
For PEC Zwolle, Koen Kostons (10 season goals, 6 assists) shows rising form
Shola Shoretire (5 season goals, 1 assist) has stable form
Younes Namli (2 season goals, 3 assists) shows a declining form trend
Goalkeepers
Joël Drommel is the goalkeeper for Sparta Rotterdam and kept 9 clean sheets this season
His form is declining (recent average rating 6.61)
Tom de Graaff is the goalkeeper for PEC Zwolle and achieved 5 clean sheets
His form is rising (recent average rating 7.78)
Influences
Sparta Rotterdam has a record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses (9:7 goals) on artificial turf
PEC Zwolle has a record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses (17:17 goals) on artificial turf
Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel is known for an average of 2.0 goals per game
In only 20% of games at the stadium do both teams score or are over 2.5 goals scored