Eredivisie
Heracles Almelo - FC Utrecht
03/06/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.8
1.5
1:1
14%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Heracles Almelo
FC Utrecht
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
28%
Away Win
41%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
59%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Utrecht's Favorite Role: The mathematical analysis sees FC Utrecht as favorites with a 41% win probability
- Squad Impact on Heracles: Heracles Almelo is missing key players, impacting 29% of their usual starting XI's goal threat
- Form and Statistics: FC Utrecht shows positive form and currently scores more frequently (1.6) than their season average (1.3)
Risk Factors
- Heracles' Defensive Vulnerability: Heracles Almelo concedes an average of 2.6 goals per game
- Limited Offensive Threat from Heracles: Heracles Almelo averages only 3.4 shots on target per game
- High Probability for Both Teams to Score: The mathematical analysis indicates a 57% probability that both teams will score
Overview
Heracles Almelo (18th place, 17 points) host FC Utrecht (8th place, 34 points) at Asito Stadion
Eredivisie match on March 6, 2026, 8:00 PM
Heracles is in a relegation battle, while Utrecht is fighting for higher league positions
Form
Heracles Almelo shows a form of WLLLL
This corresponds to 1 win and 4 losses in the last 5 games
The team currently has 4 consecutive losses
FC Utrecht displays a form of LWWDW
This corresponds to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 matches
Utrecht won their last game
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Heracles Almelo scores an average of 1.28 goals and concedes 2.6 goals per game this season
At home, they average 1.31 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded
FC Utrecht averages 1.52 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded per game this season
Away from home, their average is 1.55 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded
The Asito Stadion sees an average of 2.6 goals per game
Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Heracles Almelo has not won any
FC Utrecht won 4 of these encounters, with 1 game ending in a draw
The goal difference is 2:10 in favor of FC Utrecht
FC Utrecht won the last meeting on August 10, 2025, with a score of 4:0
Key Players
For Heracles Almelo, Ajdin Hrustic (Midfielder, 1 goal, 6 assists, 6.97 rating), Damon Mirani (Defender, 3 goals, 0 assists, 6.68 rating), and Alec Van Hoorenbeeck (Defender, 2 goals, 0 assists, 6.68 rating) are important players
For FC Utrecht, Souffian El Karouani (Defender, 2 goals, 10 assists, 7.45 rating), Gjivai Zechiël (Midfielder, 5 goals, 3 assists, 7.04 rating), and Vasilios Barkas (Goalkeeper, 0 goals, 0 assists, 7.03 rating) are key players
Goalkeepers
Remko Pasveer was in goal for Heracles Almelo in recent matches
Heracles Almelo recorded 1 clean sheet this season
Vasilios Barkas is the goalkeeper for FC Utrecht
FC Utrecht kept 4 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match takes place at Asito Stadion on artificial turf
Heracles Almelo has a record of 4 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses (18:18 goals) on artificial turf
FC Utrecht's record on artificial turf is 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses (5:5 goals)
Heracles Almelo's home strength is reflected in 1.31 goals scored and 1.75 goals conceded per home game
FC Utrecht's away record shows 1.55 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded per away game
The stadium averages 2.6 goals per game