Eredivisie
Excelsior - SC Heerenveen
03/07/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.6
1.6
1:1
14%1:2
9%0:2
9%2:1
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Excelsior
SC Heerenveen
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
25%
Draw
28%
Away Win
47%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
53%
Away or Draw
75%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Prediction: SC Heerenveen is favored with a win probability of 47%
- Form advantage: SC Heerenveen shows better recent form with 3 wins in their last 5 games compared to Excelsior (1 win)
- Offensive strength: SC Heerenveen currently scores more often (2.0 goals) than Excelsior (1.2 goals)
Risk Factors
- Excelsior defense: Excelsior concedes an average of 1.42 goals per home game
- SC Heerenveen defense: SC Heerenveen concedes an average of 1.91 goals per away game
- Even head-to-head record: Direct encounters show a balanced power dynamic between the teams
Overview
Excelsior (15th place, 26 points) hosts SC Heerenveen (9th place, 34 points) at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. This Eredivisie match takes place on March 7, 2026, 9:00 PM. Excelsior is fighting for survival, while Heerenveen aims to establish itself in the upper half of the table.
Form
Excelsior has shown a form of DWLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five games, with a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Their last match was a 0-1 defeat against Go Ahead Eagles. SC Heerenveen has a form of LWWLW in their last five games, with 3 wins and 2 losses. They won their last match 2-1 against Sparta Rotterdam.
Statistics
Excelsior scores an average of 1.04 goals per game and concedes 1.68 goals. At home, they score 1.08 goals and concede 1.42 goals. Both teams scored in 15 matches, and 15 matches had over 2.5 goals. SC Heerenveen shows stronger offense with an average of 1.68 goals per game, but concedes 1.72 goals. Away from home, they score 1.64 goals and concede 1.91 goals. Both teams scored in 18 matches, and 18 matches had over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the 5 previous head-to-head matches, the record between Excelsior and SC Heerenveen is even. Both teams have secured 2 wins, while 1 match ended in a draw. Excelsior scored a total of 7 goals, SC Heerenveen 3 goals. The last encounter on October 4, 2025, ended in a 2-1 victory for SC Heerenveen.
Key Players
For Excelsior, Noah Naujoks is the top scorer with 7 goals. Gyan de Regt showed strong form with 3 assists in the last 5 games, but has only scored 2 goals throughout the season. Irakli Yegoian contributed 1 goal in the last 5 games. For SC Heerenveen, Jacob Trenskow stands out with 9 season goals and scored 2 goals in the last 5 matches. Lasse NordÄs has 4 season goals and also scored 2 goals in the last 5 games. Maxence Rivera was involved in 2 assists in the last 5 games. Not nominated: Arthur Zagré (Excelsior) with 2 goals and Marcus Linday (SC Heerenveen) with 2 assists.
Goalkeepers
For Excelsior, Stijn van Gassel is in goal, with 5 clean sheets in 23 season appearances. On SC Heerenveen's side, Bernt Klaverboer guards the goal, achieving 2 clean sheets in 20 season appearances.
Influences
The Van Donge & De Roo Stadion has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 games. Excelsior has a record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses on artificial turf with a goal difference of 12:14. SC Heerenveen shows a positive record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss on artificial turf with 10:4 goals.