Eredivisie
PSV - AZ
03/07/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.9
1.2
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
PSV
AZ
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
46%
Draw
27%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
54%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
58%
No
42%
Key Factors
- PSV's strong offense (Avg. 3.0 home goals) faces AZ's vulnerable away defense (Avg. 1.9 goals conceded)
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 46% probability and 1.64 expected home goals for PSV
- PSV has been dominant in direct encounters with 4 wins and 18:5 goals in the last 5 meetings
Risk Factors
- AZ concedes an average of 1.9 goals per away game
- PSV shows a negative trend in goal production with currently 2.4 goals compared to 2.7 on season average
Overview
PSV (1st place, 65 points) hosts AZ (6th place, 39 points) at the Philips Stadion
Eredivisie match on March 7, 2026, 8:00 PM
PSV aims to extend its league lead, while AZ is fighting for European spots
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
PSV's current form (WWLWW) shows 4 wins and 1 loss in the last 5 games
PSV recently won two games in a row
AZ's current form (WLWWL) includes 3 wins and 2 losses
AZ recently suffered a loss
Statistics
PSV averages 2.92 goals per game and concedes 1.2 goals per game
AZ averages 1.68 goals per game and concedes 1.6 goals per game
In home games, PSV scores an average of 3.0 goals and concedes 1.31 goals
In away games, AZ scores an average of 1.7 goals and concedes 1.9 goals
The Philips Stadion records an average of 4.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in 80% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 100% of matches
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, PSV secured 4 wins, while AZ remained winless
One match ended in a draw
The goal difference of 18:5 clearly favors PSV
The last encounter on November 9, 2025, ended with a 5:1 victory for PSV
PSV has shown dominance in recent direct confrontations
Key Players
For PSV, Joey Veerman (8 goals, 13 assists, avg rating 8.02) is among the top players
Ismael Saibari (12 goals, 5 assists, avg rating 7.43) shows stable form
Ricardo Pepi (9 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 7.11) is another important player
Not nominated for PSV are Guus Til (12G/3A), Mauro JĂșnior (1G/8A), Esmir Bajraktarevic (2G/2A)
For AZ, Troy Parrott (13 goals, 1 assist, avg rating 7.22) stands out with rising form
Sven Mijnans (6 goals, 5 assists, avg rating 7.16) is also a key player
Isak Jensen (1 goal, 2 assists, avg rating 6.85) is an important offensive player
Not nominated for AZ are Kasper Boogaard (0G/2A), Matej Sin (1G/1A)
Goalkeepers
PSV's goalkeeper, Matej Kovar, has an average rating of 6.81 and kept 6 clean sheets
AZ's goalkeeper, Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro, has an average rating of 6.71 and kept 5 clean sheets
Influences
PSV benefits from a home advantage at the Philips Stadion, where the team scores an average of 3.0 goals and concedes 1.31 goals
The stadium is known for high-scoring games with an average of 4.0 goals per match