Eredivisie
FC Groningen - Ajax
03/07/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.5
1.3
1:1
14%2:1
8%1:2
8%2:0
6%0:2
6%What influences the xG?
FC Groningen
Ajax
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
35%
Draw
30%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
65%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Ajax's stronger league position (3rd place) and higher points total of 44
- Ajax's superior recent form (1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses) and H2H dominance (4 wins in 5 encounters)
- The mathematical model predicts a very balanced game with 1.26 expected goals for both teams, despite Ajax's strength
Risk Factors
- FC Groningen has only 63% of its usual starting eleven strength, with Stije Resink (5G/5A), Younes Taha (4G/6A), and Marco Rente (2G/2A) not in the lineup
- FC Groningen is on a negative run with 5 consecutive losses
- The very balanced predicted goals of 1.26 for both teams suggest an unpredictable outcome
Overview
FC Groningen (11th place, 31 points) hosts Ajax (3rd place, 44 points) in the Eredivisie. The match takes place on March 7, 2026, 4:30 PM at Euroborg. Ajax is fighting for top positions, while Groningen is in the mid-table.
Form
FC Groningen shows a negative form with LLLLL across all competitions. The team recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses in their last five games. Their last defeat was a 2-3 away against FC Volendam. Ajax, on the other hand, has a more stable form with DDWDD. They recorded 1 win, 4 draws, and 0 losses in their last five games, including a 0-0 away against PEC Zwolle.
Statistics
FC Groningen scores an average of 1.32 goals and concedes 1.4 goals per game this season. At home, these values are 1.31 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded. The team kept 7 clean sheets and scored in 13 matches, while over 2.5 goals were scored in 13 games. Ajax shows stronger offense with an average of 1.88 goals per game and 1.24 goals conceded. Away, they score 1.92 goals and concede 1.67 goals. Ajax achieved 6 clean sheets and both teams scored in 18 of their games. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 14 of Ajax's matches. At Euroborg, an average of 2.4 goals per game were scored. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax dominated with 4 wins and 1 draw. FC Groningen failed to win any of these games. The goal difference of 6:16 clearly favors Ajax. The last encounter on December 2, 2025, ended with a 2-0 victory for Ajax.
Key Players
For FC Groningen, Brynjólfur Willumsson stands out in attack with 6 season goals. Thom van Bergen contributed 5 goals and 3 assists and shows a declining form. Dies Janse, a defender, scored 1 season goal and shows a rising form with 1 goal in the last 3 games. For Ajax, Mika Godts is the top scorer with 13 goals and 8 assists and shows stable form. Youri Baas, a defender, scored 4 goals and 1 assist. Davy Klaassen in midfield contributed 4 goals and 2 assists.
Goalkeepers
FC Groningen has Etienne Vaessen in goal, who kept 7 clean sheets this season and has an average rating of 6.89. For Ajax, Maarten Paes is in goal, who achieved an average rating of 7.43 in his 2 appearances and kept 6 clean sheets.
Influences
The home team FC Groningen scored 17 goals at home and conceded 13 goals. The playing surface at Euroborg is grass. The stadium statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per game. Both teams scored in 60% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of matches.