Eredivisie
FC Twente - FC Utrecht
03/15/2026, 11:15 AM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.0
0.9
2:0
11%1:1
11%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
FC Twente
FC Utrecht
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
63%
Draw
22%
Away Win
14%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
86%
Away or Draw
37%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: FC Twente has a home win probability of 63% and significantly more predicted goals (2.11 to 0.93)
- Home Form and Offense: FC Twente won 4 of their last 5 games and increased their offensive output to 2.8 goals per game
- Statistical Matchup: FC Twente concedes only 0.92 goals at home, while FC Utrecht allows 1.58 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- FC Utrecht has been the more dominant team in recent direct encounters
- The mathematical analysis predicts a draw probability of 22%
Overview
FC Twente (5th place, 44 points) host FC Utrecht (9th place, 35 points) at De Grolsch Veste
Eredivisie match on March 15, 2026, 12:15 PM
FC Twente aims to consolidate its position in the upper third of the table
FC Utrecht attempts to close the gap to the European places
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
FC Twente shows strong form with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 games (WDWWW)
They recently achieved 3 consecutive wins
FC Utrecht recorded 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches (WWDWD)
The last match ended in a draw
Statistics
FC Twente has scored an average of 1.73 goals per game this season and conceded 1.04 goals
At home, they average 1.69 goals scored and concede 0.92 goals
FC Twente currently scores more frequently (2.8) than their season average (1.9) with a positive form trend
FC Twente appears balanced with 53% possession and 7.6 shots on target, indicating strong offense
FC Utrecht averages 1.46 goals and 1.19 goals conceded per match
Away, they scored 1.42 goals and conceded 1.58 goals
FC Utrecht currently scores more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.5) with a positive form trend
FC Utrecht is counter-oriented with 45% possession and 4.2 shots on target, which is average
At De Grolsch Veste, an average of 2.4 goals were scored in the last 5 games
In 40% of the matches, both teams scored, and 40% ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there was 1 win for FC Twente, 2 wins for FC Utrecht, and 2 draws
The goal difference is balanced with 5:5 goals
The last encounter on December 7, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw
FC Utrecht has been the more dominant team in recent direct encounters
Key Players
For FC Twente, Daan Rots (Attacker) is a key player with 7 goals and 3 assists at an average rating of 7.03 and rising form
Kristian Hlynsson (Midfielder) has 7 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 7.04 and stable form
Sam Lammers (Attacker) recorded 5 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 7.07 and rising form
For FC Utrecht, Souffian El Karouani (Defender) is a key player with 2 goals and 10 assists at an average rating of 7.48 and declining form
Gjivai Zechiël (Midfielder) contributed 5 goals and 3 assists and shows a rising form with a rating of 7.04
Ángel Alarcón (Attacker) scored 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.12 and declining form
Goalkeepers
Lars Unnerstall of FC Twente (average rating 6.73 in 25 appearances) recorded 7 clean sheets this season
Vasilios Barkas of FC Utrecht (average rating 7.00 in 25 appearances) kept his goal clean 5 times
Influences
FC Twente has scored 22 goals and conceded 12 goals at home, indicating a home advantage
De Grolsch Veste is known for an average of 2.4 goals per game, a 40% rate for both teams to score, and a 40% rate for over 2.5 goals