Eredivisie
Ajax - Sparta Rotterdam
03/14/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.2
3.1
1.0
1:1
10%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Ajax
Sparta Rotterdam
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
63%
Draw
22%
Away Win
15%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
61%
Under 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
39%
Under 3.5
62%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
85%
Away or Draw
37%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Ajax with a 63% win probability
- Ajax's Home Strength: The team scores an average of 1.85 home goals and concedes only 0.85 goals at home
- Sparta Rotterdam's Away Defense: The visitors concede an average of 1.64 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Ajax's Inconsistent Form: In their last 5 games, Ajax recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss
- Ajax Player Absences: K. Dolberg (Abdominal Problems) and W. Weghorst (Yellow Card Suspension) are unavailable
Overview
Ajax (5th place, 44 points) host Sparta Rotterdam (7th place, 38 points) at the Johan Cruijff Arena
Eredivisie match on March 14, 2026, 9:00 PM
Ajax aims to solidify their position in the European qualification spots and reduce the gap to the top teams
The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Ajax with 63% probability
Form
Ajax has shown mixed form recently with a DWDDL record (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)
Their last match ended in a 1-3 away loss against FC Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam is in a more difficult phase with a DDLLD form (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses)
The team last played an away game, drawing 1-1 against PEC Zwolle
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Ajax scores an average of 1.85 goals per game and concedes 1.31 goals per game this season
At home, Ajax's offense is strong with an average of 1.85 goals per game, and their defense is solid with 0.85 goals conceded
Sparta Rotterdam averages 1.27 goals and 1.65 goals conceded per game this season
Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam scores an average of 1.29 goals and concedes 1.64 goals per match
The last 5 games at the Johan Cruijff Arena saw an average of 3.2 total goals
In these matches, both teams scored in 80% of the cases (4 out of 5 games)
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of the matches (3 out of 5 games)
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax secured 2 wins, Sparta Rotterdam 0 wins, and there were 3 draws
Ajax scored a total of 10 goals, while Sparta Rotterdam scored 7 goals
The last encounter on October 4, 2025, ended in a 3-3 draw
Ajax has been the more dominant side in recent direct comparisons
Key Players
For Ajax, Mika Godts is a key player with 13 season goals and 8 assists, and an average rating of 7.51
His form is rising with 2 goals in his last 5 games (rating 8.08)
Davy Klaassen has contributed 5 goals and 2 assists this season
Defender Youri Baas has 4 goals and 1 assist this season
For Sparta Rotterdam, Tobias Lauritsen is the top scorer with 10 goals and 3 assists and a rating of 7.32
Shunsuke Mito registered 5 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 7.05
Joshua Kitolano scored 5 goals and 2 assists
Goalkeepers
Ajax has kept a total of 6 clean sheets this season, 5 of which were in home games
Sparta Rotterdam has recorded 9 clean sheets this season, 5 of which were in away games
Influences
The Johan Cruijff Arena has proven to be a venue for high-scoring matches in the last 5 games, with an average of 3.2 goals per game
The home team, Ajax, scores an average of 1.85 goals and concedes only 0.85 goals in their own stadium, suggesting a clear home advantage