Eredivisie
AZ - Heracles Almelo
03/15/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.7
3.6
0.9
2:1
9%3:0
9%3:1
8%4:0
6%4:1
5%What influences the xG?
AZ
Heracles Almelo
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
73%
Draw
17%
Away Win
10%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Under 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
70%
Under 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
48%
Under 3.5
52%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
90%
Away or Draw
27%
No Draw
83%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- AZ is a clear favorite with a home win probability of 73%
- AZ's home strength with an average of 1.67 goals meets Heracles' extremely weak away defense, which concedes 4.11 goals per game
- AZ has a strong offense with an average of 6.0 shots on target, while Heracles only records 2.6 shots on target
Risk Factors
- AZ has a short recovery period with only 3 days since their last match
- Heracles Almelo concedes an average of 4.11 goals per away game
- Heracles Almelo averages only 2.6 shots on target per game
Overview
AZ (7th place, 39 points) host Heracles Almelo (18th place, 18 points) at the AFAS Stadion in the Eredivisie. The match takes place on March 15, 2026, at 2:30 PM. AZ are fighting for international spots, while Heracles Almelo are battling to stay in the league
Form
AZ's form across all competitions is: WWLLW (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses). The last five matches include a 2-1 win against Sparta Praha, a 1-2 loss against PSV, and a 0-2 loss against FC Utrecht, followed by 4-0 and 3-1 wins against Noah and Sparta Rotterdam respectively. Heracles Almelo's form across all competitions is: LLLLD (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses). Their last five matches ended in a 0-0 draw against FC Utrecht, a 1-3 loss against PSV, a 0-4 loss against Go Ahead Eagles, a 0-1 loss against NAC Breda, and a 1-4 loss against NEC Nijmegen. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
AZ averages 1.65 goals scored per game and concedes 1.62 goals. At home, the average is 1.67 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded. Heracles Almelo averages 1.23 goals scored and concedes 2.5 goals per game. Their away record is poor, with an average of 1.22 goals scored and 4.11 goals conceded. AZ kept 5 clean sheets, while Heracles Almelo managed 2. Both teams scored in 19 of AZ's games and 14 of Heracles Almelo's games. The AFAS Stadion sees an average of 3.4 total goals per game. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head matches, AZ secured two home wins, Heracles Almelo achieved two away wins, and there was one draw. AZ scored a total of 4 goals in these encounters, while Heracles Almelo scored 8 goals. AZ won the last encounter 2-1 on September 14, 2025
Key Players
For AZ, Troy Parrott is a crucial offensive player with 13 goals and 1 assist in 21 appearances, though his form is currently declining. Sven Mijnans contributed 6 goals and 5 assists in 22 games, with his form also declining. Mees de Wit has 2 goals and 4 assists in 25 appearances, showing a declining form. Not nominated for AZ are Isak Jensen (1G/3A), Alexandre Penetra (2G/1A), and Kasper Boogaard (0G/2A). For Heracles Almelo, Ajdin Hrustic is important with 1 goal and 6 assists in 24 games, his form is stable. Damon Mirani scored 3 goals in 25 appearances, his form is stable. Lequincio Zeefuik scored 2 goals in 8 games, his form is stable. Not nominated for Heracles Almelo are Luka Kulenovic (5G/3A) and Djevencio van der Kust (0G/2A)
Goalkeepers
AZ's goalkeeper is Hobie Verhulst. AZ has kept 5 clean sheets this season. Heracles Almelo's goalkeeper is Remko Pasveer, with an average rating of 7.21 in 6 appearances, his form is declining. Heracles Almelo managed to keep 2 clean sheets
Influences
AZ shows a good goal-scoring rate at home, averaging 1.67 home goals and 1.4 home goals conceded. The AFAS Stadion is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.4 goals per game. In 4 out of 5 matches at the AFAS Stadion, both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were recorded. The playing surface is grass