Eredivisie
PSV - NEC Nijmegen
03/14/2026, 05:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.9
1.3
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
PSV
NEC Nijmegen
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
43%
Draw
27%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
57%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- PSV's clear dominance in the league with 68 points and a home offense of Avg. 2.93 goals per game, corresponding to a home win probability of 43%.
- PSV's significantly better current form with 4 wins in the last 5 games, including a streak of 3 wins.
- PSV's historical superiority in head-to-head matches with 3 wins and a goal difference of 15:9 in the last 5 encounters.
Risk Factors
- NEC Nijmegen concedes an average of 1.92 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
- Both teams show a negative trend in goal production according to Advanced Stats; PSV's goals are stagnant at 2.2 instead of 2.7, NEC Nijmegen's at 1.6 instead of 2.5.
Overview
PSV (1st place, 68 points) host NEC Nijmegen (3rd place, 46 points) at the Philips Stadion. Eredivisie match on March 14, 2026, 6:45 PM. PSV aims to extend their lead at the top of the table, while NEC Nijmegen seeks to defend their position in the upper half.
Form
PSV's current form is WLWWW across all competitions. This equates to 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. The team is on a winning streak of 3 consecutive games.
NEC Nijmegen's form is LDDLW, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games.
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
PSV averages 2.88 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded per game this season. At home, their offense is particularly strong, averaging 2.93 goals scored, while their defense concedes 1.29 goals. PSV has kept 6 clean sheets, both teams scored in 19 games, and 22 games ended with over 2.5 goals.
NEC Nijmegen averages 2.46 goals scored and 1.65 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they score 2.42 goals and concede an average of 1.92 goals. NEC Nijmegen has 4 clean sheets, both teams scored in 21 games, and 21 games ended with over 2.5 goals.
The Philips Stadion sees an average of 3.4 total goals per game. In 4 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and all 5 games had over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, PSV leads with 3 wins compared to NEC Nijmegen's 1 win, with 1 draw. PSV scored 15 goals, while NEC Nijmegen scored 9 goals. The last encounter was won by PSV with a 5:3 score on September 13, 2025. PSV has been dominant in recent matchups.
Key Players
For PSV: Ismael Saibari (12 goals, 5 assists) shows a stable form trend. Ricardo Pepi (10 goals, 1 assist) also maintains stable form. Dennis Man (6 goals, 6 assists) shows stable form in his recent appearances.
For NEC Nijmegen: Bryan Linssen (7 goals, 7 assists) shows a declining form trend. Tjaronn Chery (7 goals, 6 assists) also exhibits declining form. Başar Önal (6 goals, 6 assists) is also on a declining form trend.
Goalkeepers
PSV's goalkeeper Matej Kovar has achieved 6 clean sheets this season and shows a rising form trend. NEC Nijmegen's goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen has achieved 0 clean sheets this season.
Influences
PSV demonstrates a strong home offense with an average of 2.93 goals and a stable defense conceding 1.29 goals per game. The Philips Stadion is known for high-scoring matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game and 100% of matches seeing over 2.5 goals in the last 5 games. The playing surface is grass.