Eredivisie
Heracles Almelo - Excelsior
03/20/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.8
1.2
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Heracles Almelo
Excelsior
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
28%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: Heracles has a 44% home win probability, making them slight favourites
- Form crisis: Both teams are in a deep form crisis, Excelsior with 5 consecutive losses
- Relegation battle: As last place and 15th, this match in the relegation battle is crucial for both
Risk Factors
- Heracles Almelo has an average of only 2.6 shots on target per game
- Excelsior concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away game
Overview
Heracles Almelo (18th place, 18 points) host Excelsior (15th place, 26 points) at Asito Stadion. The Eredivisie match will take place on March 20, 2026, 8:00 PM. It is a direct duel in the relegation battle, with both teams urgently needing points.
Form
Heracles Almelo shows poor form in their last five matches with 4 losses and 1 draw (LLLDL). Excelsior has lost all of their last 5 games (LLLLL). W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss. Heracles lost 0-4 away against AZ and drew 0-0 at home against FC Utrecht. Excelsior lost 1-2 away against Feyenoord and 1-2 at home against SC Heerenveen.
Statistics
Heracles Almelo scores an average of 1.19 goals and concedes 2.56 goals per game this season. Excelsior scores an average of 1.04 goals and concedes 1.70 goals. Heracles kept 2 clean sheets in 27 games, Excelsior kept 5 clean sheets in 27 games. Both teams scored in 14 of Heracles' matches and in 17 of Excelsior's matches. At Asito Stadion, an average of 2.0 goals were scored per game, and both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games. Heracles Almelo's current goal production (0.3) is lower than their season average (1.2). Excelsior's goal production (0.8) is also lower than their season average (1.1).
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Heracles Almelo leads with 3 wins compared to 2 wins for Excelsior. Heracles scored a total of 12 goals, while Excelsior scored 11 goals. Heracles Almelo won the last encounter on November 8, 2025, with a 2-1 away victory against Excelsior. Heracles Almelo also won their last home game on September 2, 2023, by 3-1.
Key Players
For Heracles Almelo, Ajdin Hrustic (1 goal, 6 assists, avg 6.96), Damon Mirani (3 goals, avg 6.70), and Lequincio Zeefuik (2 goals, avg 6.69) are key players. Naci Ünüvar (0 goals, 1 assist, avg 6.68) and Alec Van Hoorenbeeck (2 goals, avg 6.73) are also noteworthy. Not nominated for Heracles are Luka Kulenovic (5G/3A) and Djevencio van der Kust (0G/2A). For Excelsior, Noah Naujoks (8 goals, avg 6.86), Irakli Yegoian (4 goals, 2 assists, avg 7.01), and Gyan de Regt (2 goals, 4 assists, avg 6.79) are crucial. Arthur Zagré (3 goals, avg 6.72) and Ilias Bronkhorst (2 goals, avg 6.83) are also to be considered. Rick Meissen (0G/2A) is not nominated for Excelsior.
Goalkeepers
Remko Pasveer of Heracles Almelo played 7 season matches and achieved 2 clean sheets. Stijn van Gassel of Excelsior played in 25 matches and recorded 5 clean sheets. Pasveer's form has recently declined, while van Gassel had no appearances in the last 5 games.
Influences
Heracles Almelo scores an average of 1.17 goals at home and concedes 1.56 goals. Excelsior concedes an average of 2.08 goals away and scores 1.08 goals. The artificial turf at Asito Stadion is not unfamiliar territory for either team. Heracles has a record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses (10:16 goals) on artificial turf. Excelsior recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses (12:16 goals) on this surface. An average of 2.0 goals per game are scored at Asito Stadion.