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Eredivisie

Telstar - PSV

03/22/2026, 03:45 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Telstar
1.0
Total xG
2.9
PSV
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

10%

1:3

6%

0:3

6%
What influences the xG?
TELPSV

Telstar

Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 1, 15 places gap)
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.14
Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp not in squad (7 goals, 1 assists)
Nils Rossen not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Guus Offerhaus not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Nökkvi Thórisson not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.4 goals/match)

PSV

Attack strength (1.31x league average)
+0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 16, 15 places gap)
+0.13
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.02
Joey Veerman on the bench (8 goals, 13 assists)
Mauro Júnior on the bench (1 goals, 8 assists)
Sergiño Dest not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Yarek Gasiorowski on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
Paul Wanner on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.8 vs 2.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

19%

Draw

25%

Away Win

56%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

44%

Away or Draw

81%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • PSV's commanding league leadership with 68 points compared to Telstar in 16th place with 24 points
  • PSV's strong away offense, averaging 2.83 goals per game, faces Telstar's home defense, which concedes an average of 1.5 goals
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for PSV with a 56% probability and 1.90 expected goals
Risk Factors
  • PSV has lost 2 of their last 5 games, including the most recent one
  • Telstar concedes an average of 1.5 goals per home game
  • Telstar's poor home record on artificial turf (1 win, 5 draws, 4 losses) could diminish their home advantage
Overview

Telstar (16th place, 24 points) host PSV (1st place, 68 points) at BUKO Stadion

The Eredivisie match takes place on March 22, 2026, 4:45 PM

PSV leads the league, while Telstar battles against relegation

Form

Telstar shows a form of DLWWL across all competitions

The team achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five games

Most recently, they suffered a 0-3 defeat against SC Heerenveen away

PSV's form is LWWWL, with 3 wins and 2 losses

PSV lost their last match 2-3 against NEC Nijmegen at home

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

PSV displays an impressive offense with an average of 2.85 goals per game, while Telstar averages 1.3 goals scored

Defensively, PSV concedes an average of 1.26 goals, Telstar 1.67

In home games, Telstar averages 1.31 goals scored and concedes 1.5 goals

PSV scores 2.83 goals away and concedes only 1.08 goals per game

PSV has achieved 6 clean sheets so far, Telstar 4

At BUKO Stadion, an average of 3.0 goals per game are scored, and in 3 out of 5 matches, both teams scored

In 3 out of 5 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored

Head-to-Head

In the most recent head-to-head encounter on August 30, 2025, PSV won 2-0 at home against Telstar

This was the only recorded duel between the two teams

PSV scored 2 goals, Telstar none

Key Players

Telstar will be without the unnominated Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp (7 goals/1 assist), Nils Rossen (3 goals/1 assist), Guus Offerhaus (0 goals/3 assists), and Nökkvi Thórisson (1 goal/2 assists)

Key players include Jeff Hardeveld with 4 goals and 6 assists with a season rating of 7.15, who did not play in the last 5 games

Patrick Brouwer scored 6 goals and 3 assists with a rating of 6.95 and also did not play in the last 5 games

Danny Bakker with 2 goals and 2 assists has a rating of 6.94 and also did not play recently

Tyrone Owusu shows a positive form trend with an average rating of 7.08 in his last two appearances

PSV will be without the unnominated Joey Veerman (8 goals/13 assists), Mauro Júnior (1 goal/8 assists), Sergiño Dest (1 goal/4 assists), Yarek Gasiorowski (3 goals/1 assist), and Paul Wanner (2 goals/2 assists)

Ismael Saibari is a key player with 12 goals and 7 assists with a rating of 7.42, he scored 1 goal in his last appearance and shows stable form

Guus Til scored 12 goals and 3 assists, played in 4 out of 5 games, and shows declining form

Ricardo Pepi contributed 10 goals and 1 assist, scored 2 goals in 2 appearances, and shows stable form

Goalkeepers

Telstar's goalkeeper Ronald Koeman Jr. has an average season rating of 7.23 and kept 4 clean sheets this season, one of which was at home

PSV goalkeeper Matej Kovar has a rating of 6.79 and achieved 6 clean sheets, 4 of them away

Matej Kovar shows a rising form trend with an improvement of 0.46 in the last five games

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Telstar has a record of 1 win, 5 draws, and 4 losses with 14:17 goals on artificial turf

PSV, however, has a positive record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss with 10:4 goals on artificial turf

BUKO Stadion records an average of 3.0 goals per game

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