Bundesliga
Heidenheim - RB Leipzig
01/24/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
3.7
2.3
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
18%
Draw
19%
Away Win
63%
Goals
Over 1.5
94%
Over 2.5
79%
Over 3.5
54%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
37%
Away or Draw
82%
No Draw
81%
Both Score
Yes
68%
No
32%
Key Factors
- Offensive Superiority: Leipzig's attack (1.94 goals/game) faces one of the league's weakest defenses (Heidenheim, 2.17 goals conceded/game)
- Quality Gap and League Standing: The clash of 5th versus 17th reflects a clear difference in class, which is also evident in the season's statistics
- Historical Dominance: RB Leipzig is unbeaten in the last five head-to-head meetings (4 wins, 1 draw) and holds a clear psychological advantage
Risk Factors
- Leipzig's defensive away weakness: Conceding 2.17 goals per away game, Leipzig's defense is vulnerable and could offer Heidenheim scoring opportunities
- High-scoring venue: The Voith-Arena averages a high 3.2 goals per game, which can lead to unpredictable outcomes
- No pressure on Heidenheim: As the clear underdog, Heidenheim can play without the burden of expectation, which could make them a dangerous opponent
Overview
Heidenheim, in 17th place with 13 points, hosts RB Leipzig, 5th with 32 points, at the Voith-Arena. The Bundesliga match takes place on January 24, 2026, at 3:30 PM. The fixture presents a clear clash between a relegation candidate and a team fighting for European spots.
Form
Heidenheim (LLDLD) has not secured a win in their last five matches, with 2 draws and 3 losses. Their form is therefore clearly negative. RB Leipzig (WLLWL) shows inconsistent form with 2 wins and 3 losses. Despite recent defeats, Leipzig's overall form is considered stronger than the home team's.
Statistics
RB Leipzig has a significantly stronger attack, averaging 1.94 goals per game compared to Heidenheim's 0.94. The visitors are also more stable defensively, conceding an average of 1.41 goals, while Heidenheim concedes 2.17. Away from home, Leipzig scores an average of 1.83 goals but also concedes 2.17. Heidenheim has not kept a single clean sheet in 18 league games this season.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, RB Leipzig has had the clear upper hand. Leipzig won 4 matches, while one game ended in a draw. Heidenheim failed to win any of these games. The goal difference of 9:4 also speaks clearly in favor of the visitors. The last meeting ended in a 2-0 victory for RB Leipzig.
Key Players
For Heidenheim, Marvin Pieringer is in rising form with 2 goals in his last five games, while Stefan Schimmer is the top scorer with 5 season goals. For RB Leipzig, Christoph Baumgartner with 6 season goals and 7 assists, as well as in-form strikers RĂŽmulo and Yan Diomande, who both scored 3 times in their last five matches, are crucial.
Goalkeepers
Heidenheim's goalkeeper Diant Ramaj has not kept a single clean sheet in 18 matches this season. In contrast, RB Leipzig's PĂ©ter GulĂĄcsi has managed 8 clean sheets in 17 season games, representing a clear advantage for the visitors in this position.
Influences
The Voith-Arena is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.2 goals per match and an 80% Over 2.5 rate in the last five games. On their home grass pitch, Heidenheim has a negative record (2W-3D-5L), while RB Leipzig boasts a positive record on this surface away from home (5W-1D-4L). Leipzig's defensive weakness on the road (2.17 goals conceded per game) could contribute to the high-scoring nature of the stadium.