Eredivisie
Feyenoord - Ajax
03/22/2026, 01:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.8
1.1
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
9%1:2
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Feyenoord
Ajax
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
49%
Draw
27%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
51%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Feyenoord with 49%
- Offensive Trend: Ajax's offense is currently in top form (avg. 2.5 goals recently vs. 1.8 season avg.)
- Home Strength vs. Away Weakness: Feyenoord's strong home offense (avg. 2.27 goals) meets Ajax's vulnerable away defense (avg. 1.92 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
- Feyenoord's Form Dip: Feyenoord's current goal production is declining (avg. 1.6 goals recently vs. 2.0 season avg.)
- Tight H2H: Ajax has won 3 of the last 5 direct encounters
- BTTS Probability: A 55% probability of both teams scoring indicates a potentially open match
Overview
Feyenoord (2nd place, 52 points) host Ajax (4th place, 47 points) at Stadion Feijenoord
Eredivisie match on March 22, 2026, 2:30 PM
This match is a top clash for international qualification spots
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Feyenoord shows a form of WWLDW with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games
Feyenoord's current goal production is declining (avg. 1.6 goals recently vs. 2.0 season avg.)
Ajax has a form of WDDLW, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games
Ajax's goal production is rising (avg. 2.5 goals recently vs. 1.8 season avg.)
Statistics
Feyenoord averages 2.22 goals scored and 1.44 goals conceded per game
Ajax averages 1.93 goals scored and 1.26 goals conceded per game
In home games, Feyenoord averages 2.27 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded
In away games, Ajax averages 2.00 goals scored and 1.92 goals conceded
The last 5 matches at Stadion Feijenoord saw an average of 3.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in 60% of these matches
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of these matches
Head-to-Head
There have been 5 head-to-head matches between Feyenoord and Ajax
Feyenoord won 2 of these matches, while Ajax won 3
There have been no draws in their direct encounters
Feyenoord scored 11 goals and Ajax scored 6 goals in these duels
The last encounter on December 14, 2025, ended with a 2-0 victory for Ajax
Ajax has been more dominant in recent head-to-head matches
Key Players
Feyenoord's offense is led by Ayase Ueda (22 goals, 1 assist) and Anis Hadj Moussa (8 goals, 5 assists)
Jordan Bos contributed with 3 goals and 7 assists
Not selected for Feyenoord: In-beom Hwang (1G/3A), Mats Deijl (0G/2A)
For Ajax, Mika Godts (14 goals, 9 assists), Davy Klaassen (6 goals, 2 assists), and Wout Weghorst (6 goals, 2 assists) are key performers
Not selected for Ajax: Rayane Bounida (1G/4A), Youri Regeer (0G/2A)
Goalkeepers
Feyenoord's goalkeeper Timon Wellenreuther has kept 8 clean sheets in 26 season appearances
At home, Feyenoord achieved 4 clean sheets
Ajax's goalkeeper Maarten Paes has made 4 season appearances
Ajax has kept a total of 7 clean sheets this season, with 1 clean sheet away from home
Influences
Feyenoord has a clear home advantage with an average of 2.27 home goals and 1.33 home goals conceded
Stadion Feijenoord shows a trend towards high-scoring games with an average of 3.2 goals per match
In 60% of the last 5 home games, both teams scored
In 80% of the last 5 home games, over 2.5 goals were scored