šŸ‡³šŸ‡±

Eredivisie

PEC Zwolle - NAC Breda

03/21/2026, 08:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
PEC Zwolle
1.5
Total xG
2.6
NAC Breda
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
PZNB

PEC Zwolle

Attack weakness (0.65x league average)
-0.30
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Shola Shoretire not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
Simon Graves not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
22% of goal output missing (only 76% available)

NAC Breda

Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.58
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.43
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.02
Lewis Holtby on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists)
Kamal Sowah on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

29%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 47% for PEC Zwolle
  • PEC Zwolle is unbeaten in four games (four draws), while NAC Breda recently suffered a heavy 0:6 defeat
  • PEC Zwolle's solid home performance (1.33 goals scored, 1.33 goals conceded per home game) meets NAC Breda's overall weak season performance
Risk Factors
  • NAC Breda averages only 3.0 shots on target per game
  • NAC Breda concedes an average of 2.70 goals per away game
Overview

PEC Zwolle (13th place, 30 points) host NAC Breda (17th place, 23 points) at MACĀ³PARK Stadion. The Eredivisie match on March 21, 2026, 9:00 PM. Both teams are fighting for crucial points in the battle for survival

Form

PEC Zwolle's league form is LDDDD, including 0 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss from their last five matches. The team has drawn four consecutive games. NAC Breda, on the other hand, shows a form of WWLDL, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from their last five games. Their last result was a loss. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

PEC Zwolle scored an average of 1.33 goals per game this season and conceded 1.93 goals. At home, they scored 1.33 goals and conceded 1.33 goals per game. NAC Breda scored an average of 1.04 times and conceded 1.78 goals. Their away record is weaker with 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 goals conceded. At MACĀ³PARK Stadion, an average of 2.8 goals per game have been scored recently, and both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, there have been 5 encounters. Both teams secured one win each, while three matches ended in a draw. The goal difference is 6:5 in favour of PEC Zwolle. The last meeting on October 18, 2025, ended in a 2:2 draw

Key Players

For PEC Zwolle, Koen Kostons with 11 season goals and 6 assists, and Younes Namli with 2 goals and 4 assists, are key players. Thijs Oosting also contributes to the offense with 4 goals and 1 assist. Not nominated are Shola Shoretire (5 goals, 1 assist) and Simon Graves (0 goals, 2 assists). For NAC Breda, Boy Kemper stands out with 3 goals and 3 assists, followed by Charles-Andreas Brym with 2 goals and 4 assists. Clint Leemans scored 1 goal this season and one goal in the last 5 games. Not nominated are Lewis Holtby (1 goal, 5 assists) and Kamal Sowah (1 goal, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Tom de Graaff of PEC Zwolle recorded 5 clean sheets this season. Daniel Bielica of NAC Breda achieved 4 clean sheets

Influences

MACĀ³PARK Stadion has an artificial turf surface. PEC Zwolle has a record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses with 15:9 goals on artificial turf. NAC Breda, however, won 1 game, drew 0, and lost 4 with a goal difference of 2:7 on artificial turf. The stadium has seen an average of 2.8 goals per game, and both teams scored in 80% of matches

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.