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Eredivisie

Fortuna Sittard - FC Twente

03/21/2026, 03:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Fortuna Sittard
1.2
Total xG
3.7
FC Twente
2.5
Most Likely Scores

1:2

9%

1:3

8%

0:3

7%

2:2

5%

1:4

5%
What influences the xG?
FSFT

Fortuna Sittard

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.87
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap)
-0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.05
Mohamed Ihattaren not in squad (6 goals, 10 assists)
Kaj Sierhuis on the bench (10 goals, 0 assists)
Ivo Pinto not in squad (0 goals, 5 assists)
Dimitrios Limnios not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
Philip Brittijn not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Lance Duijvestijn not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Justin Hubner on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

FC Twente

Attack strength (1.79x league average)
+1.59
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.25
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap)
+0.07
Daan Rots not in squad (7 goals, 3 assists)
Kristian Hlynsson not in squad (7 goals, 3 assists)
Sam Lammers not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists)
Mats Rots not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Bart van Rooij not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Sondre Ørjasæter not in squad (1 goals, 5 assists)
Thomas van den Belt not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
Ramiz Zerrouki not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

14%

Draw

19%

Away Win

66%

Goals

Over 1.5

89%

Under 1.5

11%

Over 2.5

71%

Under 2.5

29%

Over 3.5

50%

Under 3.5

50%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

34%

Away or Draw

86%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Critical Squad Impact: Fortuna Sittard's starting eleven has 0% of its usual goal threat without key players like Mohamed Ihattaren (6G/10A) and Kaj Sierhuis (10G/0A)
  • Critical Squad Impact: FC Twente's starting eleven also has only 0% of its usual goal threat, as Daan Rots (7G/3A) and Kristian Hlynsson (7G/3A) are missing
  • Form and H2H Dominance: FC Twente is predicted to win with 66% probability and has dominated direct encounters with 4 wins out of 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Limited Data Availability for Duels: Data for 'Total Duels' in the last 5 matches for both teams is unavailable
  • Key Absence for FC Twente: T. van den Belt (3 season goals, 1 assist) is missing due to a yellow card suspension
Overview

Fortuna Sittard (11th place, 35 points) hosts FC Twente (5th place, 44 points) at Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Eredivisie match on March 21, 2026, 4:30 PM

FC Twente aims for European qualification, while Fortuna Sittard is positioned in the mid-table

The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for FC Twente with a 66% probability

Form

Fortuna Sittard's form in the last five matches is LWWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This corresponds to 3 wins and 2 losses

In their last game, Fortuna Sittard secured a 2-1 away win against FC Volendam

FC Twente's form in their last five matches is DWWWL

This means 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

FC Twente recently lost 0-2 at home against FC Utrecht

Statistics

Fortuna Sittard averages 1.56 goals per game and concedes 1.85 goals per game this season

At home, these values are 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 goals conceded

Fortuna Sittard is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than its season average (1.6)

FC Twente averages 1.67 goals per game and boasts a strong defense with only 1.07 goals conceded

Away, FC Twente's stats are similar: 1.64 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded

FC Twente scores consistently (~1.8 goals per game)

Fortuna Sittard recorded 21 both teams to score (BTTS) games and 19 over 2.5 goals games this season

FC Twente has 16 BTTS games and 11 over 2.5 goals games

The pipeline analysis calculates a 64% probability for BTTS and a 71% probability for over 2.5 goals

The Fortuna Sittard Stadion has seen an average of 4.4 goals per game in the last five matches, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals occurring in all 5 games

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters so far, FC Twente dominated with 4 wins

Fortuna Sittard has not won any of the direct duels, with one match ending in a draw

The goal difference in these matches is 4:11 from Fortuna Sittard's perspective

The last meeting on September 26, 2025, ended with a 3-2 away win for FC Twente

Key Players

For Fortuna Sittard, Dimitrios Limnios, with an average rating of 7.11 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, as well as Paul Gladon with 3 goals and 1 assist and Philip Brittijn with 2 goals and 1 assist at the home stadium, are important players

For FC Twente, goalkeeper Lars Unnerstall, with a season average rating of 6.76, is a key figure

Goalkeepers

Fortuna Sittard is expected to start with Luuk Koopmans in goal, who has achieved an average rating of 6.66 in 6 season appearances

Fortuna Sittard's team recorded 3 clean sheets this season

FC Twente's goalkeeper, Lars Unnerstall, has an average rating of 6.76 in 26 season appearances

FC Twente kept 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

The Fortuna Sittard Stadion is known for high-scoring matches, with an average of 4.4 goals per game in the last five matches

In these games, over 2.5 goals were always scored and both teams always found the net

Fortuna Sittard scores an average of 1.57 goals at home but also concedes 1.57 goals

FC Twente shows a solid offense away from home with 1.64 goals per game and a stable defense with 1.07 goals conceded

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