🇳🇱

Eredivisie

NAC Breda - Sparta Rotterdam

04/05/2026, 02:45 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
NAC Breda
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Sparta Rotterdam
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

2:1

9%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
NBSR

NAC Breda

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.55
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 10, 7 places gap)
-0.10
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.04
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.02
Lewis Holtby on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists)
Kamal Sowah on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
-0.53
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.07
Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 17, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Pelle Clement on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

31%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The model projects a 40% home win probability for NAC Breda
  • League Position: Sparta Rotterdam is significantly higher in the league table at 10th place compared to NAC Breda's 17th place
  • High-Scoring Venue: The Rat Verlegh Stadion averages 4.0 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Limited Offense: NAC Breda averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Away Defensive Weakness: Sparta Rotterdam concedes an average of 1.93 goals per away game
  • Player Absences for NAC Breda: M. Soumano (Ankle Injury) and L. Greiml (Red Card Suspension) are out
Overview

NAC Breda (17th place, 23 points) host Sparta Rotterdam (10th place, 41 points) at the Rat Verlegh Stadion. The Eredivisie match takes place on April 5, 2026, 4:45 PM. NAC Breda is battling against relegation, while Sparta Rotterdam is positioned in the mid-table.

Form

NAC Breda recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches across all competitions (WLDLL). Recent results include a 1-2 loss against PEC Zwolle and a 0-6 loss against Go Ahead Eagles. Sparta Rotterdam shows the same record with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses (LLDLW). Sparta Rotterdam won their last match 2-0 against FC Volendam. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

NAC Breda averages 1.06 home goals scored and 1.24 home goals conceded per game. Sparta Rotterdam averages 1.29 away goals scored and 1.93 away goals conceded per game. NAC Breda kept 2 clean sheets at home, while Sparta Rotterdam achieved 5 clean sheets away. The Rat Verlegh Stadion has seen an average of 4.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 games.

Head-to-Head

In the 3 previous head-to-head encounters, both NAC Breda and Sparta Rotterdam secured 1 win each, with 1 draw. Overall, NAC Breda scored 3 goals, and Sparta Rotterdam scored 2 goals. The last meeting on December 7, 2025, saw Sparta Rotterdam win 1-0 against NAC Breda.

Key Players

For NAC Breda, Mohamed Nassoh (4 goals, 1 assist, AvgRating 6.87) with stable form and Boy Kemper (3 goals, 3 assists, AvgRating 6.92) are key players. Charles-Andreas Brym (2 goals, 4 assists, AvgRating 6.84) shows declining form. For Sparta Rotterdam, Tobias Lauritsen (11 goals, 3 assists, AvgRating 7.31), Shunsuke Mito (6 goals, 3 assists, AvgRating 7.05), and Joshua Kitolano (5 goals, 2 assists, AvgRating 6.87) stand out, all currently showing a declining form trend.

Goalkeepers

NAC Breda's goalkeeper, Daniel Bielica, has an average rating of 6.83 in 27 appearances. He has shown a declining form trend in the last five games with a rating of 6.17. NAC Breda has achieved 4 clean sheets this season. Joël Drommel, Sparta Rotterdam's goalkeeper, has an average rating of 7.25 in 28 appearances; his form is also declining with a 7.00 rating in the last five games. Sparta Rotterdam has recorded 10 clean sheets this season.

Influences

The Rat Verlegh Stadion is a high-scoring venue, with an average of 4.0 goals per game and a BTTS rate of 60% in the last 5 matches. NAC Breda averaged 1.06 home goals scored and 1.24 home goals conceded. Sparta Rotterdam showed a stronger offense away from home with 1.29 goals per game but also a vulnerable defense conceding 1.93 goals per away game.

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.