Eredivisie
NAC Breda - Sparta Rotterdam
04/05/2026, 02:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.4
1.1
1:1
15%0:0
11%1:0
10%2:1
9%0:1
8%What influences the xG?
NAC Breda
Sparta Rotterdam
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
31%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The model projects a 40% home win probability for NAC Breda
- League Position: Sparta Rotterdam is significantly higher in the league table at 10th place compared to NAC Breda's 17th place
- High-Scoring Venue: The Rat Verlegh Stadion averages 4.0 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Limited Offense: NAC Breda averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Away Defensive Weakness: Sparta Rotterdam concedes an average of 1.93 goals per away game
- Player Absences for NAC Breda: M. Soumano (Ankle Injury) and L. Greiml (Red Card Suspension) are out
Overview
NAC Breda (17th place, 23 points) host Sparta Rotterdam (10th place, 41 points) at the Rat Verlegh Stadion. The Eredivisie match takes place on April 5, 2026, 4:45 PM. NAC Breda is battling against relegation, while Sparta Rotterdam is positioned in the mid-table.
Form
NAC Breda recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches across all competitions (WLDLL). Recent results include a 1-2 loss against PEC Zwolle and a 0-6 loss against Go Ahead Eagles. Sparta Rotterdam shows the same record with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses (LLDLW). Sparta Rotterdam won their last match 2-0 against FC Volendam. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
NAC Breda averages 1.06 home goals scored and 1.24 home goals conceded per game. Sparta Rotterdam averages 1.29 away goals scored and 1.93 away goals conceded per game. NAC Breda kept 2 clean sheets at home, while Sparta Rotterdam achieved 5 clean sheets away. The Rat Verlegh Stadion has seen an average of 4.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In the 3 previous head-to-head encounters, both NAC Breda and Sparta Rotterdam secured 1 win each, with 1 draw. Overall, NAC Breda scored 3 goals, and Sparta Rotterdam scored 2 goals. The last meeting on December 7, 2025, saw Sparta Rotterdam win 1-0 against NAC Breda.
Key Players
For NAC Breda, Mohamed Nassoh (4 goals, 1 assist, AvgRating 6.87) with stable form and Boy Kemper (3 goals, 3 assists, AvgRating 6.92) are key players. Charles-Andreas Brym (2 goals, 4 assists, AvgRating 6.84) shows declining form. For Sparta Rotterdam, Tobias Lauritsen (11 goals, 3 assists, AvgRating 7.31), Shunsuke Mito (6 goals, 3 assists, AvgRating 7.05), and Joshua Kitolano (5 goals, 2 assists, AvgRating 6.87) stand out, all currently showing a declining form trend.
Goalkeepers
NAC Breda's goalkeeper, Daniel Bielica, has an average rating of 6.83 in 27 appearances. He has shown a declining form trend in the last five games with a rating of 6.17. NAC Breda has achieved 4 clean sheets this season. Joël Drommel, Sparta Rotterdam's goalkeeper, has an average rating of 7.25 in 28 appearances; his form is also declining with a 7.00 rating in the last five games. Sparta Rotterdam has recorded 10 clean sheets this season.
Influences
The Rat Verlegh Stadion is a high-scoring venue, with an average of 4.0 goals per game and a BTTS rate of 60% in the last 5 matches. NAC Breda averaged 1.06 home goals scored and 1.24 home goals conceded. Sparta Rotterdam showed a stronger offense away from home with 1.29 goals per game but also a vulnerable defense conceding 1.93 goals per away game.