Eredivisie
SC Heerenveen - Heracles Almelo
04/05/2026, 12:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.1
1.0
1:1
11%2:0
10%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
SC Heerenveen
Heracles Almelo
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
61%
Draw
23%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
39%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Matchup advantage: SC Heerenveen's home offense (avg. 1.8 goals) meets Heracles Almelo's extremely vulnerable away defense (avg. 4.56 goals conceded)
- Form trend: SC Heerenveen is in good condition with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games, while Heracles Almelo recorded 3 losses and 2 draws
- Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a 61% probability for a SC Heerenveen home win
Risk Factors
- Away weakness: Heracles Almelo concedes an average of 4.56 goals per away game
- Limited offensive threat: Heracles Almelo averaged only 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Missing key contributor: Ajdin Hrustic (1 goal, 6 assists) is not in the lineup, impacting 17% of seasonal assists for Heracles Almelo
Overview
SC Heerenveen (9th place, 41 points) host Heracles Almelo (18th place, 19 points) at the Abe Lenstra Stadion
Eredivisie match on April 5, 2026, 2:30 PM
SC Heerenveen aims to stay connected to the top places
Heracles Almelo is fighting against relegation
Form
SC Heerenveen is in good form (LWWWD)
This includes 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in the last 5 games
The last match ended in a draw
Heracles Almelo is in poor form (LLDLD)
The team has achieved 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in the last 5 games
Heracles Almelo also drew their last match
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
SC Heerenveen averages 1.8 goals per home game
They concede an average of 1.47 goals at home
Heracles Almelo scores an average of 1.22 goals away from home
However, the team concedes an alarming 4.56 goals per away game
SC Heerenveen has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Heracles Almelo achieved 2 clean sheets
At the Abe Lenstra Stadion, an average of 3.2 goals per game are scored
Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
There have been a total of 5 head-to-head matches between the teams
SC Heerenveen won 3 of these matches
Heracles Almelo won 1 match
1 game ended in a draw
SC Heerenveen scored 10 goals, Heracles Almelo scored 3
The last encounter was won by SC Heerenveen away with a 3:0 score on December 20, 2025
SC Heerenveen has been dominant in recent direct encounters
Key Players
Jacob Trenskow is a key player for SC Heerenveen with 11 goals and 3 assists, holding an average rating of 7.23
He contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games, showing stable form
Joris van Overeem displayed a solid season performance with 2 goals and 7 assists and a rating of 7.01
In the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists with stable form
Lasse Nordås is another important offensive force with 5 goals and 1 assist and a rating of 7.14
His form is stable, with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games
Sem Scheperman is an important midfielder for Heracles Almelo with 1 goal and 1 assist and a rating of 7.02
He scored 1 goal in the last 5 games, but his form is slightly declining
Walid Ould-Chikh delivered 1 goal and 4 assists with an average rating of 6.91
Lequincio Zeefuik scored 2 season goals with a rating of 6.75, with 1 goal in the last 5 games and stable form
Goalkeepers
SC Heerenveen's goalkeeper, Bernt Klaverboer, recorded 3 clean sheets in 23 appearances and showed rising form with an average rating of 7.40 in the last 5 games
Remko Pasveer of Heracles Almelo made 2 clean sheets in 8 appearances and also shows rising form with an average rating of 7.19 in the last 5 games
Influences
The Abe Lenstra Stadion, SC Heerenveen's home stadium, averages 3.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games
SC Heerenveen scores an average of 1.8 goals at home and concedes 1.47 goals
Heracles Almelo concedes an average of 4.56 goals away, while scoring 1.22 goals