Eredivisie
AZ - Fortuna Sittard
04/04/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.1
1.1
1:1
11%2:1
10%2:0
9%3:1
7%3:0
6%What influences the xG?
AZ
Fortuna Sittard
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
58%
Draw
24%
Away Win
18%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
61%
Under 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
62%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
82%
Away or Draw
42%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win probability of 58% for AZ
- AZ demonstrates a stronger offense with 1.71 goals per home game compared to Fortuna Sittard's 2.15 goals conceded per away game
- AZ holds a better head-to-head record with 3 wins compared to Fortuna Sittard's 2 wins
Risk Factors
- Fortuna Sittard concedes an average of 2.15 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
- Both teams show a positive recent attacking form according to Advanced Stats, leading to a high probability of 59% for "Both Teams To Score" and 61% for "Over 2.5 goals"
Overview
AZ (6th place, 42 points) host Fortuna Sittard (11th place, 35 points) at the AFAS Stadion. Eredivisie match on April 4, 2026, 6:45 PM. AZ is the favorite for a win with a 58% probability according to mathematical analysis. The hosts aim to improve their position in the upper third of the table.
Form
AZ's form in the last five matches is "LWWWL", consisting of 3 wins and 2 losses. Fortuna Sittard's form in the last five matches is "WWLWL", also 3 wins and 2 losses. Both teams ended their last match with a loss. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
AZ averages 1.68 goals scored per game and concedes 1.61 goals. Fortuna Sittard averages 1.54 goals scored and 1.86 goals conceded per game. At home, AZ scores 1.71 goals and concedes 1.24 goals. Away, Fortuna Sittard scores 1.54 goals and concedes 2.15 goals. AZ had both teams score in 19 matches and over 2.5 goals in 19 matches. Fortuna Sittard had both teams score in 22 matches and over 2.5 goals in 20 matches. At the AFAS Stadion, an average of 3.4 goals were scored in the last 5 games. 3 out of 5 games ended with both teams scoring, and 4 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, AZ recorded 3 wins, while Fortuna Sittard won 2 games. Overall, AZ scored 10 goals and conceded 6 goals in these encounters. The last meeting on December 21, 2025, ended in a 4-3 defeat for AZ against Fortuna Sittard.
Key Players
Key players for AZ include Sven Mijnans (7 goals, 5 assists; 2 goals in the last 5 games), Isak Jensen (2 goals, 3 assists; 2 goals, 1 assist in the last 5 games) and Kees Smit (3 goals, 2 assists; 2 assists in the last 5 games). For Fortuna Sittard, Kaj Sierhuis (10 goals; 2 goals in the last 5 games), Dimitrios Limnios (2 goals, 4 assists; 2 goals, 1 assist in the last 5 games) and Lance Duijvestijn (2 goals, 2 assists; 2 assists in the last 5 games) are crucial. Not nominated for AZ are Troy Parrott (14T/3A) and Mees de Wit (3T/5A). Not nominated for Fortuna Sittard are Mohamed Ihattaren (6T/10A), Ivo Pinto (0T/5A) and Justin Hubner (2T/1A).
Goalkeepers
For AZ, Jeroen Zoet is listed as goalkeeper, with an average season rating of 6.65. The team had 6 clean sheets this season. Fortuna Sittard has Luuk Koopmans in goal, whose season rating is 6.59. The team achieved 3 clean sheets this season.
Influences
AZ shows a home record of 1.71 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded per home game. Fortuna Sittard concedes an average of 2.15 goals per away game. The AFAS Stadion records an average of 3.4 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 of 5 games and over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 games.