Bundesliga
FC Bayern München - FC Augsburg
01/24/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.6
3.7
1.0
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
82%
Draw
12%
Away Win
6%
Goals
Over 1.5
92%
Over 2.5
81%
Over 3.5
62%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
94%
Away or Draw
18%
No Draw
88%
Both Score
Yes
64%
No
36%
Key Factors
- Offensive dominance vs defensive vulnerability: Bayern's attack (3.94 goals/game, recently 4.4) meets Augsburg's weak defense (1.94 goals conceded/game, 2.43 away)
- Drastic form disparity: Bayern comes with five consecutive wins (WWWWW), while Augsburg is winless in five games (LDLDD) and shows a negative form trend
- Historical superiority and home strength: Bayern has won the last 5 encounters and is a force at the Allianz Arena, where an average of 4.6 goals were scored per game recently
Risk Factors
- Defensive absences for Bayern: The absence of defenders like Stanisic and Laimer could give Augsburg a chance to score and make the game tighter than expected
- Potential complacency: As clear favorites against a team in crisis, there is always a risk of Bayern becoming complacent after an early lead
- High goal concession rate at the stadium: The Allianz Arena has a high rate of games where both teams score (80%), suggesting some defensive vulnerability even in home wins
Overview
FC Bayern München (1st place, 50 points) hosts FC Augsburg (15th place, 16 points) at the Allianz Arena
This is a Bundesliga match on January 24, 2026, 3:30 PM
The standings show a clear clash between the league leaders and a team from the bottom half of the table
Form
FC Bayern München form: WWWWW
The home team has won the last 5 matches
FC Augsburg form: LDLDD
The away team is winless in 5 matches, with 2 losses and 3 draws
The form trend clearly favors FC Bayern München
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
FC Bayern München's attack is extremely strong, averaging 3.94 goals per game, and 3.90 at home
FC Augsburg's defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.94 goals per game, and 2.43 away
Augsburg scores an average of 1.11 goals per game, while Bayern concedes only 0.78
Recent matches at the Allianz Arena have seen an average of 4.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% of the cases
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, FC Bayern München has been completely dominant
They won all 5 matches, with 0 draws and 0 losses for FC Augsburg
The goal difference is 15:6 in favor of Bayern
The last meeting ended in a 3-2 victory for FC Bayern München
Key Players
Harry Kane has already scored 21 goals this season and 5 in the last 5 games
Michael Olise is in outstanding form with 10 season goals, 13 assists, and a rising form trend
Luis Díaz is also a decisive factor in Bayern's offense with 9 goals and 9 assists
Alexis Claude-Maurice shows rising form for Augsburg and has scored 2 goals in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Manuel Neuer is in goal for FC Bayern München, the team has kept 8 clean sheets this season
Finn Dahmen is the goalkeeper for FC Augsburg, whose team has kept 3 clean sheets so far
Influences
The home advantage for FC Bayern at the Allianz Arena is statistically significant
In the last 5 home games, there was an average of 4.6 goals per game
Bayern has a strong record on natural grass with 8 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss (36:10 goals)
Augsburg's away record on natural grass is significantly weaker with 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses (8:15 goals)