Eredivisie
Ajax - FC Twente
04/04/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.0
1.4
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Ajax
FC Twente
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
27%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
36%
Under 3.5
64%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Ajax with 42%, supported by 1.64 expected home goals
- Ajax demonstrates a strong home defense, conceding an average of only 0.73 goals per home game
- The Johan Cruijff Arena is known for high-scoring matches, with an average of 3.4 total goals per game
Risk Factors
- Ajax's current form is mixed with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games
- FC Twente is offensively strong, averaging 2.0 goals per game in their recent form
- Ajax has not fielded two players, Davy Klaassen (6G/2A) and Youri Regeer (0G/2A)
Overview
Ajax (4th place, 48 points) hosts FC Twente (5th place, 47 points) at the Johan Cruijff Arena
Eredivisie match on April 4, 2026, 9:00 PM
This is a crucial encounter as only one point separates the teams, with significant implications for European qualification spots
Form
Ajax's recent form (DDLWD) shows a mixed picture with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
Their last result was a draw
FC Twente (WWWLW) is in better recent shape, achieving 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
Their most recent game ended in a win
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Ajax averages 1.89 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded per game this season
At home, they show strong defense, conceding only 0.73 goals on average, while scoring 1.87 goals per home game
FC Twente scores 1.68 goals and concedes 1.07 goals on average per game
Away from home, they score 1.67 goals and concede 1.07 goals per game
Ajax's matches often see both teams score (20 times) and frequently exceed 2.5 goals (16 times)
The Johan Cruijff Arena is known for high-scoring games with an average of 3.4 total goals per match
Both teams scored in 80% of these games, and 80% had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 direct encounters, Ajax leads with 3 wins compared to FC Twente's 1 win
One match ended in a draw
Ajax scored 10 goals against FC Twente's 8 goals in these matches
The last match on October 26, 2025, saw FC Twente win 3:2 at home
Historically, Ajax has been the more dominant team in these direct clashes
Key Players
For Ajax, Mika Godts is a key offensive player with 14 goals and 9 assists this season, maintaining a stable form
Wout Weghorst contributed 6 goals and 2 assists
Steven Berghuis has 2 goals and 2 assists
For FC Twente, Daan Rots has scored 8 goals and provided 3 assists, showing stable form
Kristian Hlynsson also has 8 goals and 3 assists
Sam Lammers is in rising form with 5 goals and 4 assists this season, including 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Maarten Paes, Ajax's goalkeeper, has a season average rating of 6.92 but shows a declining form trend in his last 5 games
Ajax has kept 7 clean sheets this season, with 6 of those at home
Lars Unnerstall is FC Twente's goalkeeper with a season average rating of 6.78 and a rising form trend
FC Twente has also kept 7 clean sheets this season, with only 1 of those in away games
Influences
Ajax benefits from a strong home advantage, scoring an average of 1.87 goals and conceding only 0.73 goals per home game
The Johan Cruijff Arena is known for high-scoring matches, with an average of 3.4 total goals per game
Both teams scored in 80% of recent matches at this venue, and 80% also saw over 2.5 goals
The match will be played on a grass surface