Eredivisie
Excelsior - NEC Nijmegen
04/04/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.8
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
25%
Draw
28%
Away Win
47%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
53%
Away or Draw
75%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis identifies NEC Nijmegen as favorites with a 47% win probability
- NEC Nijmegen's significantly better form with two wins and two draws in the last five games, compared to Excelsior's four losses and one draw
- NEC Nijmegen demonstrates strong offensive power, averaging 2.46 goals per game, compared to Excelsior's 1.04 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Excelsior's active goal threat is only 89% of their usual starting XI strength, as Irakli Yegoian is not in the lineup
- NEC Nijmegen concedes an average of 1.92 goals per away game
- Excelsior scores an average of 1.00 goal per home game at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion
Overview
Excelsior (16th place, 27 points) host NEC Nijmegen (3rd place, 50 points) at the Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. This Eredivisie match will take place on April 4, 2026, 9:00 PM. While Excelsior battles against relegation, NEC Nijmegen aims to solidify its position in the European spots.
Form
Excelsior has shown poor form in their last five matches with four losses and one draw (LLLLD). Their last result was a 1-1 draw against Heracles Almelo. NEC Nijmegen is in better shape, securing two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five games (DLWWD). Most recently, they drew 2-2 against SC Heerenveen. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Excelsior has scored an average of 1.04 goals per game this season and conceded 1.68 goals. In home games, the average is 1.00 goals scored and 1.36 goals conceded. NEC Nijmegen is significantly stronger offensively, averaging 2.46 goals per game, while also conceding 1.68 goals. Away from home, NEC scores an average of 2.46 goals and concedes 1.92 goals. The Van Donge & De Roo Stadion has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In the three head-to-head matches between Excelsior and NEC Nijmegen, Excelsior recorded one win, while NEC Nijmegen won twice. The goal difference is a clear 4:11 in favor of NEC Nijmegen. The last encounter on August 9, 2025, ended with a 5-0 victory for NEC Nijmegen, highlighting their recent dominance.
Key Players
For Excelsior, Noah Naujoks in midfield with 8 season goals and 1 assist and rising form (2 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games) and Arthur Zagré in defense with 3 season goals and 1 goal in the last 5 matches are important players. Ilias Bronkhorst contributed 2 season goals as a defender and also showed stable form with 1 goal in the last 5 games. For NEC Nijmegen, Tjaronn Chery stands out with 9 goals and 6 assists and rising form (3 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games), as well as Bryan Linssen with 9 goals and 7 assists (3 goals in last 5 matches). Kodai Sano has 3 season goals and 8 assists, including 3 assists in the last 5 games.
Goalkeepers
Excelsior has recorded 5 clean sheets this season, 3 of which were in home games. Their goalkeeper Stijn van Gassel has made 26 season appearances. NEC Nijmegen has achieved 4 clean sheets this season, none of which were in away games. Goalkeeper Gonzalo Crettaz has made 25 season appearances.
Influences
The Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, which features artificial turf, has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last five matches. In 80% of these games, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored. Excelsior's record on artificial turf is negative with 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal difference of 11:15. NEC Nijmegen, however, appears stronger on artificial turf with 2 wins, 3 draws, and no losses, with a goal difference of 12:8.