Eredivisie
PSV - FC Utrecht
04/04/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
3.1
1.3
1:1
12%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
PSV
FC Utrecht
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
26%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
60%
Under 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Form contrast: PSV with two consecutive losses and negative goal production trend, while FC Utrecht shows two consecutive wins and positive goal development
- PSV home strength: PSV impresses with an average of 2.87 home goals per game and dominated the last 5 direct encounters (3 wins, 12:6 goals)
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a 26% probability for a draw and 27% for an away win, indicating a tighter match than expected
Risk Factors
- PSV's downturn: PSV's goal production has recently stalled (2.2 goals on average compared to 2.6 season average), and the defense concedes more goals (1.8 goals conceded recently compared to 1.47 season average)
- FC Utrecht's resurgence: FC Utrecht is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals on average compared to 1.5 season average) and shows a positive form trend with strong defensive performance (0.25 goals conceded recently)
- High-scoring venue: The Philips Stadion has seen over 2.5 goals in 80% of the last 5 matches, indicating high volatility in goal scoring
Overview
PSV (1st place, 68 points) host FC Utrecht (7th place, 41 points) at the Philips Stadion
Eredivisie match on April 4, 2026, 4:30 PM
PSV aims to extend their lead at the top of the table, while FC Utrecht fights for European spots in the mid-table
Form
PSV's form in the last five league games is WWWLL
This corresponds to 3 wins and 2 losses
The last result was a loss, and the second last result was also a loss, indicating two consecutive losses
FC Utrecht's form in the last five league games is DWDWW
This represents 3 wins and 2 draws
The last result was a win, and the second last result was also a win, indicating two consecutive wins
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
PSV averages 2.79 goals scored per game and concedes 1.32 goals per game this season
At home, they average 2.87 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded
FC Utrecht averages 1.5 goals scored per game and concedes 1.11 goals per game
Away from home, their average is 1.46 goals scored and 1.46 goals conceded
For PSV, both teams scored in 21 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 24 games
FC Utrecht saw both teams score in 17 games, and over 2.5 goals in 13 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct Eredivisie encounters, PSV dominated with 3 wins
There were 2 draws and no losses for PSV
PSV scored 12 goals and conceded 6 goals during this period
The last match was won by PSV on December 21, 2025, with a score of 2:1
Key Players
Key players for PSV include Joey Veerman with 8 goals and 13 assists, holding an average rating of 7.98
Ismael Saibari contributed 12 goals and 7 assists with a rating of 7.4
Ivan Perišić provided 5 goals and 9 assists with a rating of 7.33
Kiliann Sildillia shows a rising form trend with 2 goals in the last 5 games and a form tendency of +0.46
For FC Utrecht, Souffian El Karouani is important with 2 goals and 10 assists, and a rating of 7.44
Gjivai Zechiël scored 6 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 7.08 and shows a rising form
Ángel Alarcón contributed 3 goals and 2 assists, with a rising form and 2 goals in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
PSV goalkeeper Matej Kovar made 26 season appearances with 6 clean sheets
Matej Kovar shows a stable form trend of +0.11
FC Utrecht goalkeeper Vasilios Barkas appeared in 27 season matches and achieved 7 clean sheets
Vasilios Barkas shows a rising form trend of +0.61
Influences
The Philips Stadion has seen an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last five matches
In 4 out of 5 games, both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were recorded
The grass playing surface influences the game
PSV averages 2.87 goals scored at home and concedes 1.4 goals
FC Utrecht averages 1.46 goals scored away and concedes 1.46 goals