Eredivisie
PEC Zwolle - Excelsior
04/12/2026, 12:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.9
1.4
1:1
13%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
PEC Zwolle
Excelsior
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
28%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 39%
- Excelsior is in poor form, having suffered 4 losses in their last 5 matches
- PEC Zwolle has a home advantage on artificial turf with a record of 5 wins and 2 losses in 10 matches
Risk Factors
- PEC Zwolle's goal production is currently stalled at an average of 1.0 goals compared to the season average of 1.4
- Excelsior concedes an average of 1.87 goals per away game
- PEC Zwolle is missing key players such as Shola Shoretire and Tristan Gooijer, who account for 20% of the goal threat
Overview
PEC Zwolle (13th place, 33 points) host Excelsior (16th place, 27 points) at MACĀ³PARK Stadion
Eredivisie match on April 12, 2026, 2:30 PM
PEC Zwolle aims to move away from the relegation zone, while Excelsior needs crucial points in the fight for survival
Form
PEC Zwolle (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss): DDDWL
The home team achieved 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
Excelsior (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss): LLLDL
The visitors recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 5 matches
Statistics
PEC Zwolle scores an average of 1.31 goals per game and concedes 2.00 goals
At home, they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per game
Excelsior scores an average of 1.00 goal and concedes 1.69 goals
Away, they average 1.00 goal scored and 1.87 goals conceded per game
PEC Zwolle recorded 5 clean sheets, Excelsior also 5
20 matches involving PEC Zwolle and 18 matches involving Excelsior ended with both teams scoring
At MACĀ³PARK Stadion, an average of 2.6 goals were scored in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches at this stadium
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches at MACĀ³PARK Stadion
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches, PEC Zwolle won 2 times and Excelsior won 1 time
There were no draws in these encounters
The last match ended 1:2 in favor of Excelsior on December 20, 2025
Overall, PEC Zwolle scored 7 goals and Excelsior scored 5 goals in direct duels
The recent record shows dominance for the home team
Key Players
PEC Zwolle:
Koen Kostons scored 11 goals and 6 assists with an average rating of 7.04
Younes Namli contributed 2 goals and 4 assists, with a rating of 7.29
Thijs Oosting registered 5 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 6.78
Excelsior:
Noah Naujoks has scored 8 goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 6.85
Irakli Yegoian contributed 4 goals and 2 assists, with a rating of 7.00
Gyan de Regt registered 2 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 6.79
Goalkeepers
Tom de Graaff, PEC Zwolle's goalkeeper, has an average rating of 6.95 this season
PEC Zwolle achieved 5 clean sheets
Stijn van Gassel, Excelsior's goalkeeper, has an average rating of 7.20 and 1 assist
Excelsior also recorded 5 clean sheets
Influences
MACĀ³PARK Stadion tends to be high-scoring with an average of 2.6 goals per game
Both teams scored in 80% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%
PEC Zwolle has a good record on artificial turf with 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses from 10 matches
They scored 16 goals and conceded 10
Excelsior has a weaker record on artificial turf with 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses from 10 matches
They scored 10 goals and conceded 15