Eredivisie
Heracles Almelo - Ajax
04/11/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.5
1.4
1:1
14%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:0
5%What influences the xG?
Heracles Almelo
Ajax
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
28%
Draw
30%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
72%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Ajax is significantly higher in the league table (5th place) than Heracles (18th place) and has a win probability of 42%
- Ajax has won all 5 of the last direct duels against Heracles
- Heracles Almelo is in poor form and has not won any of their last 5 league games
Risk Factors
- Heracles Almelo averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
- Ajax conceded an average of 1.85 goals per game away from home
- Ajax has recorded 2 draws and 1 loss in their last 3 away games
Overview
Heracles Almelo (18th place, 19 points) host Ajax (5th place, 48 points) at Asito Stadion
Eredivisie match on April 11, 2026, 9:00 PM
Heracles are at the bottom of the table fighting relegation, while Ajax aim to secure their European competition spot
Form
Heracles Almelo are in a difficult period: LDLDL
The team achieved 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches
Their last fixture ended in a 1-4 away loss against SC Heerenveen
Ajax show mixed form: DLWDL
In their last 5 matches, Ajax recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Their last game resulted in a 1-2 home loss against FC Twente
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Heracles Almelo scores an average of 1.17 goals per game and concedes 2.55 goals
Ajax is stronger offensively with an average of 1.86 goals scored and 1.28 goals conceded per game
At home, Heracles scores 1.16 goals and concedes 1.53 goals
Ajax scores 1.92 goals and concedes 1.85 goals away from home
At Asito Stadion, an average of 2.0 goals per game are scored
Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and 2 of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 direct encounters over recent years, Ajax has clearly dominated
Ajax won all 5 matches against Heracles Almelo
The goal difference is 6:18 in favor of Ajax
The last encounter on August 24, 2025, ended with a 2-0 victory for Ajax
Key Players
For Heracles Almelo, Lequincio Zeefuik (2 season goals) and Mario Engels (1 goal, 2 assists) are key offensive players
Sem Scheperman shows stable form with 1 goal and 1 assist
Not nominated: Ajdin Hrustic (1G/6A)
For Ajax, Mika Godts (14 goals, 10 assists) stands out and shows stable form
Wout Weghorst has contributed 7 goals and 2 assists, while Oscar Gloukh scored 5 goals and 5 assists
Not nominated: Davy Klaassen (6G/2A), Sean Steur (1G/1A)
Goalkeepers
Heracles' goalkeeper Remko Pasveer showed rising form in 5 games
Heracles Almelo has kept 2 clean sheets this season
Ajax's goalkeeper Maarten Paes showed stable form in 4 games
Ajax has recorded 7 clean sheets this season
Influences
Heracles Almelo has a record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses with 9:16 goals on artificial turf
Ajax has 1 win, 4 draws, and 0 losses with 9:8 goals on artificial turf
Heracles' home advantage is based on 1.16 home goals scored and 1.53 home goals conceded
Asito Stadion averages 2.0 goals per game