Eredivisie
AZ - SC Heerenveen
04/12/2026, 02:45 PM
Expected Goals
2.3
3.4
1.1
2:1
10%1:1
10%2:0
9%3:1
7%3:0
7%What influences the xG?
AZ
SC Heerenveen
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
63%
Draw
21%
Away Win
16%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
66%
Under 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
44%
Under 3.5
56%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
84%
Away or Draw
37%
No Draw
79%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for AZ with 63%
- SC Heerenveen is in excellent form with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches
- Both teams recently showed a strong offense, with SC Heerenveen increasing their goal-scoring rate from 1.8 season goals to 2.6 goals per game
Risk Factors
- AZ has a short recovery period of only 3 days since their last match
- SC Heerenveen concedes an average of 2.0 goals per away game
Overview
AZ (6th place, 45 points) host SC Heerenveen (8th place, 44 points) at the AFAS Stadion
Eredivisie match on April 12, 2026, 4:45 PM
Only one point separates the two teams in the standings
AZ aims to maintain its position in the European qualification spots
SC Heerenveen has the chance to overtake their opponent
Form
AZ's form across all competitions: WWLWL
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
This results in 3 wins and 2 losses from the last 5 matches
SC Heerenveen's form across all competitions: WWWDW
This results in 4 wins and 1 draw from the last 5 matches
The visitors are showing significantly better form than the home team
Statistics
AZ scores an average of 1.72 goals at home and concedes 1.17 goals per game
SC Heerenveen scores an average of 1.83 goals away and concedes 2.0 goals per game
AZ kept 7 clean sheets this season, while SC Heerenveen managed 3
An average of 3.4 goals per game are scored at the AFAS Stadion
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches at the AFAS Stadion
Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches at the AFAS Stadion
Head-to-Head
In 5 direct encounters between the two teams, the record is even
Both teams won 2 matches each, with one draw
AZ scored 17 goals, while SC Heerenveen scored 10 goals
SC Heerenveen won the last meeting on November 23, 2025, with a 3:1 score
The home team won the last home encounter on May 22, 2025, with a 4:1 score
Key Players
AZ's top scorer Troy Parrott has 14 season goals and 3 assists with an average rating of 7.18
Sven Mijnans showed rising form in the last 4 games with 3 goals and a rating of 7.74
Isak Jensen was involved in 3 goals (2 goals, 1 assist) in his last 5 matches
Not nominated: Weslley Patati (2G/2A), Denso Kasius (2G/2A)
SC Heerenveen's top scorer Jacob Trenskow has 12 season goals and 3 assists, his form is rising with 4 goals and 1 assist in 5 games
Joris van Overeem shines with 8 season assists and 3 assists in his last 5 games
Lasse Nordås scored 2 goals and assisted 1 in his last 5 matches
Goalkeepers
AZ's goalkeeper, Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro, has an average rating of 6.79 this season
AZ's team kept 7 clean sheets
SC Heerenveen's goalkeeper, Bernt Klaverboer, has an average rating of 6.86
SC Heerenveen's team kept 3 clean sheets
Influences
AZ showed a strong offense in home games with an average of 1.72 goals per match
SC Heerenveen conceded an average of 2.0 goals in away games
The AFAS Stadion is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.4 goals per match
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of the last 5 matches at the AFAS Stadion