Eredivisie
Sparta Rotterdam - PSV
04/11/2026, 04:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.8
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Sparta Rotterdam
PSV
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
27%
Draw
28%
Away Win
46%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
54%
Away or Draw
73%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- PSV holds 1st place in the league with 71 points and demonstrates strong season performance
- PSV dominates the head-to-head record with 5 wins in 5 matches
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win probability of 46% for PSV
Risk Factors
- PSV's recent defensive form shows an average of 2.2 goals conceded, compared to 1.51 in the season average
- Sparta Rotterdam's recent goal production is lower at 1.0 goals, compared to their season average of 1.3
- The history of Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel shows an average of 2.0 goals per game and 0 out of 5 matches with over 2.5 goals
Overview
Sparta Rotterdam (8th place, 42 points) host PSV (1st place, 71 points) at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel. The Eredivisie match takes place on April 11, 2026, 6:45 PM. PSV are clear league leaders, while Sparta are in the mid-table.
Form
Sparta Rotterdam's form in their last five matches is LDLWD, which includes 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their last result was a draw. PSV's recent form is WWLLW, comprising 3 wins and 2 losses. PSV won their last match.
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
PSV exhibits strong attacking prowess with an average of 2.83 goals per game this season, while Sparta Rotterdam averages 1.21 goals per game. Defensively, Sparta concedes an average of 1.62 goals per match, compared to PSV's 1.38 goals conceded. PSV had 22 matches where both teams scored, Sparta had 12. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 25 of PSV's games and 14 of Sparta's games. At Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, the average was 2.0 goals per game in 5 matches, with both teams scoring in only 2 out of 5 cases. No game exceeded 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, PSV has been dominant with 5 wins. Sparta Rotterdam has not won any of these encounters, and there have been no draws. The goal difference stands at 5:19 in favor of PSV. The last match on August 9, 2025, ended in a 6:1 victory for PSV.
Key Players
For Sparta Rotterdam, Tobias Lauritsen (11 season goals, 3 assists), Shunsuke Mito (6 goals, 3 assists), and Joshua Kitolano (5 goals, 2 assists) are key players. Tobias Lauritsen shows a declining form in his last 5 games. For PSV, Ismael Saibari (14 goals, 8 assists), Guus Til (13 goals, 3 assists), and Ricardo Pepi (10 goals, 1 assist) are prominent. Ismael Saibari's form is stable, while Guus Til and Ricardo Pepi show a declining trend.
Goalkeepers
Joël Drommel is in goal for Sparta Rotterdam, recording 11 clean sheets this season. Matej Kovar guards PSV's goal and achieved 6 clean sheets in the current season.
Influences
Sparta Rotterdam has a record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses (11:7 goals) on artificial turf. PSV's record on artificial turf is 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses (11:7 goals). At Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, the average was 2.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 2 of 5 matches and no game having over 2.5 goals.