Eredivisie
FC Utrecht - Telstar
04/11/2026, 02:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.1
1.0
1:1
11%2:1
10%2:0
10%3:1
7%3:0
7%What influences the xG?
FC Utrecht
Telstar
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
60%
Draw
23%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
40%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of 60% for a home win
- Utrecht's strong home defense (Avg. 0.80 goals conceded) meets Telstar's vulnerable away defense (Avg. 1.91 goals conceded)
- FC Utrecht shows a positive offensive trend, currently scoring more frequently (2.3) than their season average (1.6)
Risk Factors
- Telstar shows a positive offensive trend, currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.4)
- Stadion Galgenwaard recorded an average of 1.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches, which contrasts with the predicted Over 2.5 goals probability of 59%
Overview
FC Utrecht (9th place, 41 points) host Telstar (15th place, 27 points) at Stadion Galgenwaard
Eredivisie match on April 11, 2026, 4:30 PM
FC Utrecht aims to solidify its upper-half table position, while Telstar fights for league survival
Form
FC Utrecht's form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last 5 games is WDWWL
This translates to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
The last match resulted in a loss, ending a 3-game unbeaten streak
Telstar's form in their last 5 games is WWLWL
This consists of 3 wins and 2 losses
The last match resulted in a loss, breaking a 2-game winning streak
Statistics
FC Utrecht scored an average of 1.55 goals per game this season and conceded 1.21 goals
In home games, the average is 1.53 goals scored and only 0.80 goals conceded
Telstar scored an average of 1.31 goals per game and conceded 1.66 goals
Away, the average is 1.27 goals scored and 1.91 goals conceded
FC Utrecht kept 7 clean sheets, Telstar kept 4 clean sheets
Both teams scored in 18 FC Utrecht games and 18 Telstar games
Stadion Galgenwaard recorded an average of 1.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 1 out of 5 games, and no more than 2.5 goals were scored in any of the last 5 games
FC Utrecht is currently scoring more frequently (2.3) than their season average (1.6)
Telstar is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.4)
Head-to-Head
There has been 1 head-to-head match between these two teams
In this match, there were 0 home wins, 0 away wins, and 1 draw
The goal difference is 1:1
The last encounter on November 23, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw
The recent head-to-head record between the two teams is even
Key Players
For FC Utrecht, Souffian El Karouani is important with 2 goals and 10 assists and a season rating of 7.44, although his form is currently slightly declining (-0.38)
Gjivai Zechiël contributed 7 season goals and 4 assists, achieved a season rating of 7.09, and shows a rising form (+0.27) with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games
Artem Stepanov scored 4 season goals and 1 assist, scoring 4 goals in the last 5 games and showing a form trend rating of 0.15
For Telstar, Patrick Brouwer stands out with 7 season goals, 4 assists, and an average rating of 7.01, with 4 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games
Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp scored 7 goals and 1 assist, with 3 goals in the last 5 games and a rising form (+0.21)
Jeff Hardeveld recorded 4 goals and 6 assists, with 2 assists in the last 5 games and a rising form (+0.35)
Not nominated for Telstar is Nökkvi Thórisson (1G/2A)
Goalkeepers
FC Utrecht's goalkeeper, Vasilios Barkas, achieved an average rating of 7.05 and 7 clean sheets in 28 games
Telstar's goalkeeper, Ronald Koeman Jr., recorded an average rating of 7.26 and 4 clean sheets in 28 games
Influences
FC Utrecht shows strong offensive performance at home (1.53 home goals per game) and defensive stability (0.80 home goals conceded per game)
Telstar, on the other hand, concedes an average of 1.91 goals per away game
Stadion Galgenwaard recorded an average of 1.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 1 out of 5 games