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Eredivisie

FC Utrecht - Telstar

04/11/2026, 02:30 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
FC Utrecht
2.0
Total xG
3.1
Telstar
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

3:1

7%

3:0

7%
What influences the xG?
FUTEL

FC Utrecht

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.48
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.21
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap)
+0.06

Telstar

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.19
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.19
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Nökkvi Thórisson not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

23%

Away Win

17%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

83%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of 60% for a home win
  • Utrecht's strong home defense (Avg. 0.80 goals conceded) meets Telstar's vulnerable away defense (Avg. 1.91 goals conceded)
  • FC Utrecht shows a positive offensive trend, currently scoring more frequently (2.3) than their season average (1.6)
Risk Factors
  • Telstar shows a positive offensive trend, currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.4)
  • Stadion Galgenwaard recorded an average of 1.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches, which contrasts with the predicted Over 2.5 goals probability of 59%
Overview

FC Utrecht (9th place, 41 points) host Telstar (15th place, 27 points) at Stadion Galgenwaard

Eredivisie match on April 11, 2026, 4:30 PM

FC Utrecht aims to solidify its upper-half table position, while Telstar fights for league survival

Form

FC Utrecht's form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last 5 games is WDWWL

This translates to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

The last match resulted in a loss, ending a 3-game unbeaten streak

Telstar's form in their last 5 games is WWLWL

This consists of 3 wins and 2 losses

The last match resulted in a loss, breaking a 2-game winning streak

Statistics

FC Utrecht scored an average of 1.55 goals per game this season and conceded 1.21 goals

In home games, the average is 1.53 goals scored and only 0.80 goals conceded

Telstar scored an average of 1.31 goals per game and conceded 1.66 goals

Away, the average is 1.27 goals scored and 1.91 goals conceded

FC Utrecht kept 7 clean sheets, Telstar kept 4 clean sheets

Both teams scored in 18 FC Utrecht games and 18 Telstar games

Stadion Galgenwaard recorded an average of 1.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 1 out of 5 games, and no more than 2.5 goals were scored in any of the last 5 games

FC Utrecht is currently scoring more frequently (2.3) than their season average (1.6)

Telstar is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.4)

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these two teams

In this match, there were 0 home wins, 0 away wins, and 1 draw

The goal difference is 1:1

The last encounter on November 23, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw

The recent head-to-head record between the two teams is even

Key Players

For FC Utrecht, Souffian El Karouani is important with 2 goals and 10 assists and a season rating of 7.44, although his form is currently slightly declining (-0.38)

Gjivai Zechiël contributed 7 season goals and 4 assists, achieved a season rating of 7.09, and shows a rising form (+0.27) with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Artem Stepanov scored 4 season goals and 1 assist, scoring 4 goals in the last 5 games and showing a form trend rating of 0.15

For Telstar, Patrick Brouwer stands out with 7 season goals, 4 assists, and an average rating of 7.01, with 4 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Jochem Ritmeester van de Kamp scored 7 goals and 1 assist, with 3 goals in the last 5 games and a rising form (+0.21)

Jeff Hardeveld recorded 4 goals and 6 assists, with 2 assists in the last 5 games and a rising form (+0.35)

Not nominated for Telstar is Nökkvi Thórisson (1G/2A)

Goalkeepers

FC Utrecht's goalkeeper, Vasilios Barkas, achieved an average rating of 7.05 and 7 clean sheets in 28 games

Telstar's goalkeeper, Ronald Koeman Jr., recorded an average rating of 7.26 and 4 clean sheets in 28 games

Influences

FC Utrecht shows strong offensive performance at home (1.53 home goals per game) and defensive stability (0.80 home goals conceded per game)

Telstar, on the other hand, concedes an average of 1.91 goals per away game

Stadion Galgenwaard recorded an average of 1.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 1 out of 5 games

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