Eredivisie
FC Twente - NEC Nijmegen
04/25/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.7
1.2
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
FC Twente
NEC Nijmegen
League
The Lab
- 1FC Twente with Ricky van Wolfswinkel: 7.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2NEC Nijmegen with Youssef El Kachati: 6.8 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3NEC Nijmegen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4NEC Nijmegen: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5NEC Nijmegen: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
28%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis indicates FC Twente as favorites with a 45% probability
- NEC Nijmegen has shown strong attacking play in their last 5 matches with an average of 7.2 shots on target
- FC Twente is in strong home form with 4 wins in their last 5 overall matches
Overview
FC Twente (4th place, 53 points) host NEC Nijmegen (3rd place, 54 points) at De Grolsch Veste
Eredivisie match on April 25, 2026, 9:00 PM
This is a direct encounter at the top of the table
Form
Home team FC Twente is in strong form with 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches (WLWWW)
They have recorded 3 consecutive wins
NEC Nijmegen is also in good form, with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games (WWDWD)
Their last result was a draw
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
FC Twente averages 1.7 goals scored per game and concedes 1.07 goals
They kept 7 clean sheets
At home, they average 1.71 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded, with 6 home clean sheets
NEC Nijmegen has a strong offensive record of 2.4 goals per game, while conceding an average of 1.6 goals
They kept 5 clean sheets
Away from home, they average 2.43 goals scored and concede 1.79 goals, with 1 away clean sheet
At De Grolsch Veste stadium, an average of 3.0 goals per game are scored
Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches between FC Twente and NEC Nijmegen, there have been 3 home wins, 1 away win, and 1 draw
The goal difference is 10:7 in favor of FC Twente
The last encounter on October 18, 2025, ended in a 3:3 draw
FC Twente has been the more dominant team in recent meetings
Key Players
For FC Twente, Sam Lammers shows strong form in the last 5 games with 2 goals, 5 assists, and an average rating of 7.71
Kristian Hlynsson contributed 2 goals in 4 games with a rating of 7.05
Bart van Rooij recorded 1 goal and 1 assist with a rating of 7.26
For NEC Nijmegen, Sami Ouaissa stands out with 1 goal, 3 assists, and a rating of 7.60 in the last 5 games
Bryan Linssen scored 3 goals with a rating of 7.08
Tjaronn Chery contributed 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.40
Goalkeepers
Lars Unnerstall is the goalkeeper for FC Twente with 29 season appearances and an average rating of 6.76
His form is rising with a rating of 7.07 in the last 5 games
FC Twente has recorded 7 clean sheets this season
Gonzalo Crettaz is the goalkeeper for NEC Nijmegen with 27 season appearances and an average rating of 6.80
His form is rising with a rating of 7.01 in the last 5 games
NEC Nijmegen has recorded 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
FC Twente benefits from home advantage, averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded at home
NEC Nijmegen averages 2.43 goals scored away, but also concedes 1.79 goals per away game
The grass pitch at De Grolsch Veste is the usual playing surface
At De Grolsch Veste stadium, an average of 3.0 goals per game are scored
Both teams scored in 40% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of matches