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Eredivisie

FC Twente - NEC Nijmegen

04/25/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
FC Twente
1.6
Total xG
2.7
NEC Nijmegen
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
FTNN

FC Twente

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.67
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.05

NEC Nijmegen

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.23
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
-0.06
Başar Önal not in squad (7 goals, 6 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 86% available)
Weak away record (1.6 vs 2.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Twente with Ricky van Wolfswinkel: 7.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    NEC Nijmegen with Youssef El Kachati: 6.8 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    NEC Nijmegen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    NEC Nijmegen: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    NEC Nijmegen: 67% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

28%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis indicates FC Twente as favorites with a 45% probability
  • NEC Nijmegen has shown strong attacking play in their last 5 matches with an average of 7.2 shots on target
  • FC Twente is in strong home form with 4 wins in their last 5 overall matches
Overview

FC Twente (4th place, 53 points) host NEC Nijmegen (3rd place, 54 points) at De Grolsch Veste

Eredivisie match on April 25, 2026, 9:00 PM

This is a direct encounter at the top of the table

Form

Home team FC Twente is in strong form with 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches (WLWWW)

They have recorded 3 consecutive wins

NEC Nijmegen is also in good form, with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games (WWDWD)

Their last result was a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

FC Twente averages 1.7 goals scored per game and concedes 1.07 goals

They kept 7 clean sheets

At home, they average 1.71 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded, with 6 home clean sheets

NEC Nijmegen has a strong offensive record of 2.4 goals per game, while conceding an average of 1.6 goals

They kept 5 clean sheets

Away from home, they average 2.43 goals scored and concede 1.79 goals, with 1 away clean sheet

At De Grolsch Veste stadium, an average of 3.0 goals per game are scored

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches between FC Twente and NEC Nijmegen, there have been 3 home wins, 1 away win, and 1 draw

The goal difference is 10:7 in favor of FC Twente

The last encounter on October 18, 2025, ended in a 3:3 draw

FC Twente has been the more dominant team in recent meetings

Key Players

For FC Twente, Sam Lammers shows strong form in the last 5 games with 2 goals, 5 assists, and an average rating of 7.71

Kristian Hlynsson contributed 2 goals in 4 games with a rating of 7.05

Bart van Rooij recorded 1 goal and 1 assist with a rating of 7.26

For NEC Nijmegen, Sami Ouaissa stands out with 1 goal, 3 assists, and a rating of 7.60 in the last 5 games

Bryan Linssen scored 3 goals with a rating of 7.08

Tjaronn Chery contributed 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 7.40

Goalkeepers

Lars Unnerstall is the goalkeeper for FC Twente with 29 season appearances and an average rating of 6.76

His form is rising with a rating of 7.07 in the last 5 games

FC Twente has recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Gonzalo Crettaz is the goalkeeper for NEC Nijmegen with 27 season appearances and an average rating of 6.80

His form is rising with a rating of 7.01 in the last 5 games

NEC Nijmegen has recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

FC Twente benefits from home advantage, averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.07 goals conceded at home

NEC Nijmegen averages 2.43 goals scored away, but also concedes 1.79 goals per away game

The grass pitch at De Grolsch Veste is the usual playing surface

At De Grolsch Veste stadium, an average of 3.0 goals per game are scored

Both teams scored in 40% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60% of matches

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