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Eredivisie

Heracles Almelo - FC Volendam

04/26/2026, 12:30 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Heracles Almelo
1.3
Total xG
2.4
FC Volendam
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

11%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
HAFV

Heracles Almelo

Defensive weakness (2.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.86
Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.63
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.20
Lequincio Zeefuik on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1.2 goals/match)

FC Volendam

Attack weakness (0.54x league average)
-0.47
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.17
Brandley Kuwas on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists)
Aurelio Oehlers on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Ozan Kökcü on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Joel Ideho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Yannick Leliendal on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 89% available)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Heracles Almelo with Alec Van Hoorenbeeck: 0.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    FC Volendam: 79% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    FC Volendam with Alex Plat: 3.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.4 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    FC Volendam: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    FC Volendam: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

31%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical model slightly favors Heracles with a 42% home win probability and 73% for a home win or draw
  • FC Volendam's defense is extremely vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 3.88 goals per away match
  • Both teams are in a negative form trend, with Heracles showing 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last five games, and Volendam 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses
Risk Factors
  • Heracles Almelo averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches
  • FC Volendam conceded an average of 3.88 goals per away game this season
  • The probability of both teams scoring is only 49% according to the model
Overview

Heracles Almelo (18th place, 19 points) host FC Volendam (15th place, 28 points) at Asito Stadion. The Eredivisie match takes place on April 26, 2026, 2:30 PM. Both teams are fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle

Form

Heracles Almelo's league form is DLDLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). This translates to 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last five matches. Their last result was a loss. Heracles currently has 2 consecutive losses. FC Volendam shows a form of LLLDL, with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last five games. Their last result was also a loss

Statistics

Heracles Almelo scores an average of 1.13 goals and concedes 2.57 goals per game this season. At home, the average is 1.16 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded. FC Volendam scores an average of 1.03 goals and concedes 1.67 goals per game. Away, their average is 1.0 goals scored and a high 3.88 goals conceded. Heracles kept 2 clean sheets in 30 season games, Volendam also in 2 of 30 games. At this venue, an average of 2.0 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, there has been no home win for Heracles Almelo so far. FC Volendam has won 1 match, and 2 games ended in a draw. The goal difference is 3:6 in favor of FC Volendam. The last encounter was won by FC Volendam away with a 0:3 score on October 25, 2025

Key Players

For Heracles Almelo, the following players could play a role: Luka Kulenovic with 5 goals and 3 assists and an average rating of 6.87. Ajdin Hrustic contributed 1 goal and 6 assists with a rating of 6.94. Sem Scheperman scored 1 goal and 1 assist with a rating of 6.97. For FC Volendam, Robin van Cruijsen with 4 goals and 3 assists and a rating of 6.79. Henk Veerman scored 4 times and provided 2 assists with a rating of 6.80. Anthony Descotte scored 2 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 6.93

Goalkeepers

Heracles Almelo's goalkeeper, Remko Pasveer, has an average rating of 7.06 in 10 season appearances. He kept 2 clean sheets in home games. Kayne van Oevelen, FC Volendam's goalkeeper, has an average rating of 7.17 in 30 season appearances. He kept no clean sheets in away games

Influences

The match takes place at Asito Stadion on artificial turf. Heracles Almelo has a record of 1 win, 3 draws, and 6 losses on artificial turf with a goal difference of 5:17. FC Volendam has 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses on this surface with a goal difference of 13:14. Heracles shows some home strength with an average of 1.16 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded at home. Volendam shows high vulnerability away with 1.0 goals scored and 3.88 goals conceded

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