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Eredivisie

Feyenoord - FC Groningen

04/25/2026, 02:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Feyenoord
1.9
Total xG
3.2
FC Groningen
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
FEYFG

Feyenoord

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.17
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 9, 7 places gap)
+0.06
Attack strength (1.25x league average)
+0.04
Jakub Moder not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)

FC Groningen

Rising form (2.2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.23
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 2, 7 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.09
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.05
Attack strength (1.3x league average)
+0.03
S. Resink not in squad (5 goals, 5 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Groningen: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Feyenoord with Tobias van den Elshout: 9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    FC Groningen with Wouter Prins: 7.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    FC Groningen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Feyenoord: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

25%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 3.5

60%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • Feyenoord's Favoritism: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 50% and 1.91 expected goals for Feyenoord
  • FC Groningen's Strong Form: FC Groningen shows positive form development with 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches
  • Historical Dominance: Feyenoord holds a record of 2 wins and 1 draw in the last 3 direct encounters against FC Groningen
Risk Factors
  • Feyenoord's Stalling Goal Production: Goal production has recently stalled at 1.8 goals per game, while the season average is 2.0
  • Missing Key Player for Groningen: S. Resink is missing for FC Groningen, resulting in 19% of the team's seasonal goal production being unavailable
Overview

Feyenoord (2nd place, 55 points) host FC Groningen (9th place, 42 points) at Stadion Feijenoord. The Eredivisie match takes place on April 25, 2026, at 4:30 PM. Feyenoord is fighting to secure second place in the league, while FC Groningen is positioned in the middle of the table.

Form

Feyenoord's form in the last 5 games is DWDDD (1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses). They have recorded 3 consecutive draws recently. FC Groningen is in good shape with a form of WDWWD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) from their last 5 matches and recently played to a draw.

Statistics

Feyenoord scores an average of 2.07 goals and concedes 1.37 goals per game this season. At home, they average 2.06 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded per home game. FC Groningen averages 1.40 goals scored and 1.23 goals conceded per game this season. Away from home, they average 1.36 goals scored and 1.64 goals conceded. Feyenoord recorded 9 clean sheets and FC Groningen 10. At Feyenoord's stadium, the last 5 games averaged 3.0 goals per match, with both teams scoring in 80% of games and over 2.5 goals in 60%.

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches, Feyenoord secured 2 wins, while FC Groningen achieved 0 wins and 1 draw. The goal difference stands at 7:3 in favour of Feyenoord. The last encounter on September 28, 2025, ended with a 1:0 victory for Feyenoord. Feyenoord has been dominant in recent matchups.

Key Players

For Feyenoord, Ayase Ueda with 23 goals and 1 assist, Anis Hadj Moussa with 8 goals and 6 assists, and Jordan Bos with 3 goals and 7 assists are key players. Ueda, Hadj Moussa, and Bos show a declining form trend. For FC Groningen, Thom van Bergen stands out with 8 goals and 4 assists (stable form trend), Dies Janse with 2 goals and 1 assist (rising form trend), and Jorg Schreuders with 1 goal and 2 assists (rising form trend).

Goalkeepers

Feyenoord's goal will be guarded by Timon Wellenreuther, who kept 9 clean sheets in 29 season appearances. For FC Groningen, Etienne Vaessen is expected to start, having recorded 10 clean sheets in 25 appearances.

Influences

The home advantage at Stadion Feijenoord is reflected in Feyenoord's home goals (avg. 2.06) and goals conceded (avg. 1.24). The stadium statistics from the last 5 games show an average of 3.0 goals per match, with an 80% probability for both teams to score and 60% for over 2.5 goals.

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