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Eredivisie

SC Heerenveen - Fortuna Sittard

04/25/2026, 04:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
SC Heerenveen
2.1
Total xG
3.4
Fortuna Sittard
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

2:0

7%

3:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SHFS

SC Heerenveen

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.13
Full strength squad available

Fortuna Sittard

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.14
Paul Gladon on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists)
Ivo Pinto on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists)
Neraysho Kasanwirjo on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    SC Heerenveen: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Fortuna Sittard: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Fortuna Sittard with Mohamed Ihattaren: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    SC Heerenveen with Luca Oyen: 8.6 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Fortuna Sittard: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

23%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

86%

Under 1.5

14%

Over 2.5

66%

Under 2.5

34%

Over 3.5

44%

Under 3.5

56%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

65%

No

35%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for SC Heerenveen with a probability of 55%
  • SC Heerenveen shows positive form, currently scoring an average of 2.2 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.8 goals
  • Fortuna Sittard's offense is in a weaker phase, with an average of 1.0 goal per game recently, below their season average of 1.5 goals
Risk Factors
  • Fortuna Sittard shows defensive vulnerability in away games, conceding an average of 2.14 goals per match
  • The head-to-head record shows Fortuna Sittard has been recently dominant, with 2 wins in the last 5 encounters, while SC Heerenveen only recorded 1 win
Overview

SC Heerenveen (8th place, 44 points) host Fortuna Sittard (12th place, 36 points) at the Abe Lenstra Stadion. Eredivisie match on April 25, 2026, 6:45 PM. Heerenveen aims for European spots, while Sittard looks to distance themselves further from the relegation zone

Form

SC Heerenveen shows positive form in their last five matches with WWDWL, comprising 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Their last home game resulted in a 4-1 victory against Heracles Almelo. Fortuna Sittard is in a weaker phase with LWLLD, recording 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. They recently drew 1-1 away against NAC Breda

Statistics

SC Heerenveen has scored an average of 1.77 goals per game this season and conceded 1.67 goals. At home, these values improve to 1.72 goals scored and 1.28 goals conceded per game. Fortuna Sittard scores an average of 1.47 goals and concedes 1.83 goals per game. Their defense is more vulnerable away, conceding 2.14 goals per game. At the Abe Lenstra Stadion, an average of 3.8 goals were scored in the last 5 matches. In 4 out of 5 of these games, both teams scored, and 4 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, SC Heerenveen won 1, Fortuna Sittard won 2, and 2 matches ended in a draw. The goal difference is 8:10 in favor of Fortuna Sittard. The last meeting on November 8, 2025, ended with a 2-0 victory for Fortuna Sittard

Key Players

For SC Heerenveen, Jacob Trenskow is an important offensive player with 12 goals and 3 assists and an average rating of 7.21. Joris van Overeem showed himself as a creative midfielder with 2 goals and 8 assists and a rating of 7.00. Maxence Rivera contributed 4 goals and 4 assists. For Fortuna Sittard, Mohamed Ihattaren stands out with 6 goals and 10 assists and a rating of 7.25. Kaj Sierhuis is the top scorer with 10 goals, while Dimitrios Limnios contributed 2 goals and 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Bernt Klaverboer is the goalkeeper for SC Heerenveen and has shown rising form recently. His team recorded 3 clean sheets this season. For Fortuna Sittard, Luuk Koopmans is in goal and also shows rising form. His team has achieved 3 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at the Abe Lenstra Stadion. Recent history at this stadium shows a high goal-scoring rate with an average of 3.8 goals per game in the last 5 encounters. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and 4 out of 5 matches also ended with over 2.5 goals. SC Heerenveen scores an average of 1.72 goals per home game and concedes 1.28 goals. Fortuna Sittard scores 1.43 goals away and concedes 2.14 goals

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