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Eredivisie

Telstar - Sparta Rotterdam

04/22/2026, 06:00 PM

4 : 1
Expected Goals
Telstar
1.3
Total xG
2.5
Sparta Rotterdam
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
TELSR

Telstar

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.64
Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 10, 6 places gap)
-0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.08
Nƶkkvi ThĆ³risson on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

Sparta Rotterdam

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.31
Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.22
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 10 vs 16, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Shunsuke Mito on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists)
Teo Quintero not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.67
+0.67
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sparta Rotterdam: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Telstar: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Telstar with Kay Tejan: 6.9 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Sparta Rotterdam: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Sparta Rotterdam: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

30%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an extremely balanced match with almost identical win probabilities for both teams (Telstar 35%, Sparta 35%)
  • Telstar's current attacking form is improved (Avg. 1.6 goals) compared to their season average (Avg. 1.3 goals), according to Advanced Stats
  • Sparta Rotterdam's offensive performance has recently declined (Avg. 0.8 goals) compared to their season average (Avg. 1.2 goals)
Overview

Telstar (16th place, 27 points) host Sparta Rotterdam (10th place, 42 points) at BUKO Stadion in the Eredivisie

The match will take place on April 22, 2026, 8:00 PM

Both teams are fighting to connect with the midfield or avoid relegation

Form

Telstar's league form is WLWLL

This translates to 2 wins and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Their last two league games resulted in losses

Sparta Rotterdam's form is DLWDL

This means 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses from their last 5 league matches

Their last league match ended in a loss

Statistics

Telstar scores an average of 1.3 goals per game and concedes 1.73 goals

In 19 matches, Telstar scored, and in 17 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored

At home, Telstar averages 1.33 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded

Sparta Rotterdam scores an average of 1.17 goals per game and concedes 1.63 goals

Sparta Rotterdam kept 11 clean sheets, and both teams scored in 12 matches

Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 goals conceded

At BUKO Stadion, an average of 2.4 goals were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

There has only been 1 head-to-head match between these teams so far

Sparta Rotterdam won this away game 0:1

The last encounter took place on October 25, 2025

Key Players

For Telstar, Patrick Brouwer with 7 season goals and 4 assists, and Jeff Hardeveld with 4 goals and 6 assists are crucial

Danny Bakker contributed 3 season goals and 2 assists

For Sparta Rotterdam, Tobias Lauritsen is the top scorer with 11 goals and 3 assists

Milan Zonneveld (2 goals) and Vito van Crooij (1 assist) are other important players

Goalkeepers

Telstar's goalkeeper, Ronald Koeman Jr., played in 29 season matches and achieved 4 clean sheets

Sparta Rotterdam's goalkeeper Joƫl Drommel played in 30 season matches and recorded 11 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Telstar has a record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses (15:17 goals) on artificial turf

Sparta Rotterdam shows a better record on artificial turf with 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses (11:8 goals)

Telstar's home advantage is statistically described by 1.33 home goals scored compared to 1.5 home goals conceded

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